Errol Spence Jr. is one of the great fighters in the world because he’s comfortable fighting in several different situations. He’s good working behind the jab and keeping the fight at a distance. He’s able to score well to the body when the distance is cut. He’s comfortable leading or countering, and he’s got the pop in his hands and the head movement to prosper if he’s in a toe-to-toe shootout.
On Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Spence will take on Manny Pacquiao-conqueror Yordenis Ugas in a bout for three of the four major welterweight belts.
Spence is a heavy favorite at BetMGM, sitting pretty much all week at -550 with Ugas at +400.
The easy thing for Spence to do in this fight is to stay on the outside, use his edge in quickness and punching accuracy, and pile up points and win another decision. He hasn’t had a knockout since 2018.
This, though, is a different Spence heading into this fight. He’s spoken this week of how some of the difficulties he had dealing with success have changed him. He said he’d balloon up to 185 pounds between fights, making that cut to the welterweight limit of 147 torturous.
He was a partier who had two serious car accidents.
He won his fights because of the enormity of his talent and not because of his diligent preparations.
But he says he’s learned from the indiscretions of youth. The Ugas fight is a good place for him to show that. He is quicker than Ugas, punches harder and is more accurate.
You never know by looking at them, but I also suspect his conditioning is better given what he says he’s done in this camp.
Having that kind of a condition is a freedom of sorts. He can go for it when he wants and not worry about burning himself out and being unable to finish 12 rounds.
I think he breaks down Ugas with an attack to the body before dropping him with an uppercut on the inside. So I like Spence to win this by KO or TKO. BetMGM has Spence by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ at +225, so I’d rather bet Spence by TKO, than lay -550.
Additional bet
• Spence and Ugas will be fighting for the IBF-WBA-WBC welterweight titles. So of course, on the undercard, there will be a bout for a WBA welterweight title. It’s one of those only-in boxing moments.
Radzhab Butaev, who is 14-0 with 11 KOs, is a -120 favorite over Eimantas Stanionis, who is 13-0 with nine KOs. Stanionis is even money.
I like Butaev to outbox Stanionis, so I will lay the -120 and play him to win.