The first two rounds of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament produced plenty of fun moments, incredible stories and unexpected results.
But now we’ve arrived at the Sweet 16, and it is here in the tournament’s second weekend when teams with national championship aspirations must separate themselves from the field.
The few remaining Davids in the field will get their turn on Friday. But Thursday night’s action in the West and South regionals is limited to Goliaths: programs with Final Four and championship banners hanging in their home arenas.
Here is a breakdown of Thursday night’s games in San Antonio and San Francisco (times p.m. ET).
West Regional, San Francisco
4 Arkansas vs. 1 Gonzaga, 7:09, CBS
Why watch: Gonzaga, once pesky upstart and now Sweet 16 fixture, is still seeking that elusive first national title. But despite earning the overall top seed, the Bulldogs have arguably the toughest path to the Final Four of the remaining No. 1’s. It begins here with the Razorbacks, who play just the kind of physical defense that can get the high-tempo Zags out of their offensive rhythm. The game will hinge on which team can impose its style consistently.
Why it could disappoint: It’s unlikely that it will, as both teams survived nail-biters to get here. But if Gonzaga snaps out of its recent trend of starting slowly and is able to build an early lead, Arkansas might not have the firepower to keep up. Conversely, while this is among the better defensive teams Gonzaga has fielded, the equation can change when and if rim protector Chet Holmgren is sidelined with foul trouble. Should that scenario unfold, it might be the Hogs’ relentless pressure that turns the contest one-sided.
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3 Texas Tech vs. 2 Duke, 9:39, CBS
Why watch: Whether you’re a Duke fan or not, the Blue Devils games have to be appointment viewing right now as legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski’s lengthy career concludes. The Red Raiders, seeking a second Final Four appearance in four years, aren’t much interested in a storybook ending for Coach K. This extremely talented but youthful version of Duke has played its share of tight contests. The Blue Devils usually – but not always – find their way out of late-game trouble. The recent increased usage of Jeremy Roach at the point in those critical situations has helped, but Texas Tech’s ability to change defensive looks can pose problems for even the most experienced opponents. Duke’s lack of cohesion on the defensive end often lets opponents hang around, and the Red Raiders’ scoring balance makes it difficult to game-plan against them.
Why it could disappoint: The Blue Devils are just streaky enough to go on an extended run. Texas Tech is not a great 3-point shooting team (32.2%), and must therefore avoid falling into an early hole.
South Regional, San Antonio
11 Michigan vs. 2 Villanova, 7:29, TBS
Why watch: At the beginning of the season, this rematch of the 2018 national championship game in the Round of 16 seemed a lot more plausible. The Wildcats’ presence here isn’t a surprise. The Wolverines did just enough to secure one of the last at-large invitations but have made the most of their opportunity. Michigan will have the edge in the paint thanks to Hunter Dickinson, and he’s been even more effective of late thanks to steadier guard play. But even with Michigan’s improved backcourt performance, Villanova’s veterans, led by Collin Gillespie, will have the advantage on the perimeter.
Why it could disappoint: The Wolverines won’t want this to become a long-range shooting contest. The Wildcats on average hit over nine 3-pointers a game, and their 82.6% free-throw accuracy, the best in the country, makes it even harder to stage a late rally.
5 Houston vs. 1 Arizona, 9:59, TBS
Why watch: The nightcap features another set of Wildcats with a history of postseason success. The current version of Arizona is under new management, but fans certainly like what they’ve seen thus far from first-year coach Tommy Lloyd. The Cougars are somewhat surprisingly back in the Final Four hunt despite lacking the star power of last year’s squad. What Houston does well is defend, surrendering just 59 points p game. Arizona’s last outing against TCU may have provided something of a sneak preview as the Wildcats were able to make just enough plays to survive. Having a takeover guy like Bennedict Mathurin is a definite advantage, but he’ll again need help to solve the Cougars.
Why it could disappoint: If this game is going to be close, it will almost certainly also be quite ugly – think Houston’s last victory against Illinois. If it isn’t close, it will most likely be the Wildcats running away with it.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness Sweet 16 games Thursday will be battle of Goliaths