How many teams from the top four of Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff rankings will end up in the playoff at the end of the season?
Save for the inaugural playoff in 2014, at least two teams from the top four of the first rankings have been a part of the playoff. And three or more teams from the first top four have been in the final top four on three occasions.
At the moment, we’re projecting a repeat of 2020 when all four of the teams in the top four of the first rankings were there at the end. Why? We think the committee made a statement about Michigan’s non-conference schedule by having the Wolverines at No. 5. Michigan played Hawaii, Colorado State and UConn to start the season and UConn may be the best of that bunch.
With No. 1 Tennessee currently four spots ahead of the Wolverines, they could have the upper hand over Michigan if both teams finish the season at 11-1 and fail to make their conference title games. That’s a decent possibility; Tennessee is an underdog to Georgia on the road on Saturday and Michigan will be an underdog at Ohio State.
If both teams lose those games and win their other three games this season, Tennessee would seem to be the committee’s pick if the two teams’ losses were similar.
But there’s still a long way to go. No. 6 Alabama could jump into the playoff mix at 12-1 with an SEC title, like it did a season ago, and knock both Tennessee and Michigan from contention. Clemson could suffer a surprise loss or two. So could Ohio State.
Outside of the playoff, we have a few different matchups in the New Year’s Six games. North Carolina is in the Orange Bowl in place of Wake Forest after the Demon Deacons’ turnover-filled loss to Louisville. And Kansas State is in the New Year’s Six in place of Oklahoma State after blowing out the Cowboys at home.
We had the Cowboys in the Cotton Bowl but swapping them out for K-State would create a rematch between the Wildcats and Tulane. So we’re sending Kansas State to New Orleans at the moment while Big 12 favorite TCU stays closer to home and goes to the Cotton Bowl.
New Year’s Six bowl games
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30)
North Carolina vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl (Dec. 31)
Kansas State vs. Alabama
Peach Bowl (Dec. 31) [CFP semifinal]
Georgia vs. Clemson
Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31) [CFP semifinal]
Ohio State vs. Tennessee
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 2)
TCU vs. Tulane
Rose Bowl (Jan. 2)
Michigan vs. USC
Other bowl games
Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 16)
UTEP vs. Ball State
Cure Bowl (Dec. 16)
Liberty vs. Appalachian State
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 17)
Syracuse vs. Cincinnati
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 17)
Air Force vs. North Texas
LA Bowl (Dec. 17)
Boise State vs. Washington
LendingTree Bowl (Dec. 17)
Toledo vs. South Alabama
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 17)
Utah vs. LSU
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17)
Middle Tennessee State vs. SMU
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 19)
UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Potato Bowl (Dec. 20)
San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 20)
Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 21)
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22)
East Carolina vs. Texas Tech
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 23)
Wyoming vs. Georgia Southern
Independence Bowl (Dec. 23)
BYU vs. Army
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24)
San Jose State vs. UAB
Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26)
Wisconsin vs. Buffalo
First Responder Bowl (Dec. 27)
Houston vs. Washington State
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27)
South Carolina vs. Louisiana
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 27)
Ohio vs. Troy
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 27)
Iowa vs. Baylor
Military Bowl (Dec. 28)
Miami vs. UCF
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 28)
Kansas vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 28)
Wake Forest vs. UCLA
Texas Bowl (Dec. 28)
Texas vs. Arkansas
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 29)
Notre Dame vs. Minnesota
Cheez-It Bowl (Dec. 29)
Louisville vs. Oklahoma
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29)
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 30)
NC State vs. Maryland
Sun Bowl (Dec. 30)
Oregon State vs. Pitt
Gator Bowl (Dec. 30)
Duke vs. Mississippi State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 30)
UNLV vs. Eastern Michigan
Music City Bowl (Dec. 31)
Purdue vs. Florida
ReliaQuest Bowl (Jan. 2)
Florida State vs. Kentucky
Citrus Bowl (Jan. 2)
Illinois vs. Ole Miss