Last year we faded the Minnesota Vikings. It made perfect sense to do so. The 2020 Vikings accumulated the most draft capital and drafted 15 players… in a terrible year to integrate rookies or get as much impact from them given the lack of practices, minicamps, etc. They completely overhauled their defense, allowing most of their starting secondary to walk, as well as multiple players along the defensive line. Gone were Linval Joseph (Chargers) and Everson Griffen (TBD) from the line and all three starting corners: Xavier Rhodes (Colts), Trae Waynes (Bengals), and Mackensie Alexander (Bengals). Their offensive line and defensive lines were both in the bottom-five for the cheapest units in the NFL.
And this was a team due for a ton of regression. The 10-win, 2019 Vikings were:
· Healthiest team in the NFL (after being 12th in 2018)
· Fourth in sack margin at +20 (after being +10 in 2018)
· Fifth in turnover margin at +11 (after being even 0 in 2018)
· Seventh in fumble recovery luck (after being 32nd in 2018)
· Eighth in field goal luck (after being 32nd in 2018)
Also, there were two massive losses: offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs was substantially more explosive and more efficient than Adam Thielen. There was very little redundancy at WR – with Thielen age 30 and no Diggs, who was around if rookie Justin Jefferson didn’t have a great rookie campaign? Bisi Johnson? Tajae Sharpe?
The Vikings defense from 2019 played an extremely fortunate schedule of backups and bad quarterbacks, and that wasn’t likely to be the case in 2020.
And lastly, there was the home field element during COVID. Since 2016, Minnesota had a 24-9 record and was 21-9-3 ATS (70%) at home, which was the best home cover rate in the NFL. The lack of fans would mean a lack of reflection of their noise waves off the acoustically designed roof back down onto the playing surface. I forecast this would absolutely hurt the Vikings’ home field. And while the Vikings had the best cover rate in the NFL at home since 2016, they were just 16-17-1 on the road, covering only 15 of 34 games.
This was an extremely buttoned up case for a team that was projected to win 9 to 9.5 games, depending on the sportsbook.
When the Vikings started off 1-5 and headed into their bye, we knew this win was just a formality – considering the Vikings were highly unlikely to win nine of their final 10 games. But Minnesota came out strong and went 5-1 out of the bye, before they dropped three straight and stepped back like we all anticipated.
There is a way to still look pessimistically at the Vikings. Their seven wins in 2020 came against:
the 1-15 Jaguars (in overtime)
the 4-12 Texans (by one score)
the 5-11 Panthers (by one point, which required an 18-point fourth quarter in a come-from-behind win)
the 5-11 Lions (twice)
the 8-8 Bears (by one-score)
the 13-3 Packers (by one-score)
This was a team that played only seven games on the season against teams with a winning record and they went 1-6, losing by an average of eight points per game.
But there also are a lot of positives to take away from the season, as well as things I predicted would happen, which won’t happen in 2021.
Let’s start with home field. I mentioned the Vikings had the NFL’s best home cover rate in the NFL (70%) since moving into their new stadium. I predicted that without fans, Minnesota would regress. And that, they surely did. The Vikings went 3-5 at home and covered only two of eight games (25%). With the 49ers not actually playing eight games at home last year, no team had a worse home cover rate in 2020 than the Vikings.
But that won’t happen in 2021. Fans will be back in Minnesota, as they will around the NFL, and I expect they will play a major role in their home games. That could be a huge factor, considering the strength of opponents the Vikings face at home.
Minnesota plays seven non-division games in 2021 against teams projected to exceed eight wins. Of those seven games, four will come at home (Cleveland, Dallas, Pittsburgh, LA Rams). Those games will be critical in their ability to bounce back this season, and hosting most of these teams with fans in the stands will be of massive importance.
Offensively, the two critical losses were offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Vikings last year saw Gary Kubiak call their plays and this year that duty will be passed down to his son, Klint Kubiak.
Before 2020, I predicted the Vikings offense would play the 23rd toughest schedule of pass defenses. They actually played the 21st toughest schedule, so a close but not perfect prediction, but a schedule that was certainly easier than average. This was in increase in difficulty after playing the 28th toughest schedule of pass defenses in 2019.
In terms of pass protection, after ranking 14th in adjusted sack rate and 27th in pass block grade in 2019, the Vikings dropped to 24th in adjusted sack rate and 29th in pass block grade in 2020. Their overall pressure rate did not substantially decline, but their efficiency was slightly worse.
So, how did the offense actually perform in 2020, despite a tougher schedule, the pass protection getting worse, the coordinator change and the loss of Diggs?
Better in 2020 than 2019.
The Vikings had a more efficient pass game and run game, and they also passed the ball more often on first down.
In 2019, the Vikings passed the ball on first downs in the first three quarters of games at a 43% rate and ran it 57% of the time, which was seventh-most in the NFL. In 2020, they shifted to 48% pass and 52% run. It was still an above-average run rate, but the 6% shift towards the pass was notable.
The efficiency of both passes and runs was notable as well.
Passes increased 0.6 YPA compared to 2019 as both EPA/att and success rate improved.
Runs increased from 4.3 YPC to 5.1 YPC, success rate improved from 44% to 53%, and EPA improved from -0.07 to 0.03. Specifically, Dalvin Cook looked much different. Look at his first down splits:
2019: 4.0 YPC, 44% success, -0.06 EPA/att
2020: 5.2 YPC, 56% success, 0.04 EPA/att
The Vikings used a lot more outside zone on first downs and Cook was incredible running from outside zone. They also ran more pitches which got Cook on the perimeter and he excelled there as well. In fact, one suggestion for 2021 would be to run to the perimeter even more and use less inside zone.
Because passing and rushing efficiency on first down improved, the Vikings faced fewer yards to go on second down in 2020 as compared to 2019.
However, that’s where the efficiency ended. Instead of building on the efficiency of first down, the Vikings shifted massively to the run on second down.
The Vikings ran on 48% of second downs, which was 7% above the NFL average. It was the third-most run-heavy team in the NFL. The only teams that ran more often than the Vikings were the Ravens and Patriots – two teams with running quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. Second down runs gained a below-NFL-average 4.3 YPC. Compare the efficiency on second down passes to second down runs for the Vikings in the first three quarters of games:
Passes: 8.0 YPA, 50% success, 0.07 EPA/att
Runs: 4.1 YPC, 51% success, -0.09 EPA/att
The high rate of running on second down coupled with the poor performance of these runs completely screwed the Vikings on third down. The Vikings faced the fourth-longest distance to go on third down in the NFL, ahead of only the Lions, Broncos, and Giants.
Minnesota went from the fourth-shortest distance to go on second downs (7.2 yards) to the fourth-longest distance to go on third downs (7.2 yards).
The Vikings, significantly better on first down in 2020 compared to 2019, can also improve second down performance in 2021 if they simply pass the ball more often, much like they did on first down.
Another positive for the Vikings in 2020 was they finished top-10 in efficiency targeting all three positions: wide receivers (sixth at 60% success), tight ends (eighth at 60% success), and running backs (seventh at 51% success). In 2019, they likewise finished top-10 in all three positions, so these did not drop off from 2019 to 2020.
What the Vikings did, however, was adjust how often they threw to running backs. In 2019, the offense threw 36% of passes to running backs and only 39% to wide receivers. This undoubtedly related to Thielen’s injury in Week 7 and he missed the better part of the rest of the season. In 2020, Thielen played all but one game and Justin Jefferson played all 16. The Vikings were able to target wide receivers on a healthier 55% of attempts.
Minnesota upped their usage of pre-snap motion as compared to 2019 and saw improvement in that as well. They saw the seventh-best improvement in success rate and EPA/attempt and the sixth-best improvement in YPA when using pre-snap motion ahead of passes.
Another thing that was a positive was the Vikings kept 12 personnel as a passing look. Many coaches taking over playcalling, like Gary Kubiak did, might still try to use similar personnel grouping rates that worked in the past, but could be tempted to turn it into more of a run down. The Vikings passed on 65% of plays from 12 personnel, the highest rate in the NFL (average = 47%). Minnesota was dominant passing from 12 personnel, where they recorded their highest success rate of any grouping and gained more EPA/att and YPA than passes from 11 personnel.
Earlier this chapter, we discussed the concerns of the passing game for 2020 after losing Diggs. Would Justin Jefferson step up? Because if he did not, there wasn’t much behind Jefferson from a wide receiver perspective.
They didn’t have to worry — Jefferson was a breath of fresh air. He set the NFL record for most receiving yards by a rookie (1,400) and his jersey and gloves are now in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He also broke Randy Moss’s record for most receptions by a rookie (88). What makes Jefferson’s records so special is that the Vikings finished 27th in passing attempts in 2020.
Simply put, Jefferson was exceptional. What was frustrating, though, was the Vikings didn’t even utilize him in the first two weeks of the season. Jefferson didn’t start the first two games (both losses) and was targeted only three times in each game. He started every single game from Week 3 onward and was targeted an average of 8.5 times per game.
Jefferson could prove to be such a special talent that the Vikings need to rethink their offensive strategy.
After the season, Cousins said: “In this offense we’re going to run the football, so that’s going to open up a lot of explosive plays for Justin, but he also has to stay patient because [there’s] going to be times where we’re running the ball well and we’re not throwing it to him every play. He did a great job this year of being ready when his number was called and just continuing to show up for us. And it’s also impressive to look back and realize that the role he had for us Week 1 and Week 2 was not the same role he had Week 3 and beyond. That’s encouraging as well to think what he could have done with two more weeks as the ‘X.’”
The last part obviously is true. But what is discouraging is the first part about running the ball to open up explosive pass plays. You don’t need to run to open up explosive pass plays. By getting into heavy personnel, the Vikings already dictate box count.
Justin Jefferson scored seven touchdowns last season. Only one of those touchdowns came on 57 targets when the defense was in a light box (6 men or fewer). But four touchdowns came on 21 targets when the defense was in a heavy box (8+ men). The Vikings got those heavy box counts not from 11 personnel, but from 12 and 21 personnel.
The Vikings don’t need to establish their run to take these shots from heavy personnel, they just need to get into heavy personnel. Jefferson delivered his highest EPA/att (0.71) and highest success rate (71%) when he was targeted with the defense in heavy box counts.
Even though the 2020 Vikings came out on first downs and passed 6% more often than they did in 2019, their conservative approach on second down and desire to stay focused on the run actually shifted the Vikings to a more run-heavy team in neutral situations, despite their worse record.
In one-score games, the 2020 Vikings ran the ball on 50% of their plays, the third highest rate in the NFL. This, despite the fact that passes in one-score games averaged 8.4 YPA, second highest in the NFL.
This was a 4% increase in run rate over the 2019 Vikings, even though Minnesota led by one score far more often in 2019 with their 10-6 record than they did in 2020 with their 7-9 record.
If Minnesota continues to run the ball at such a high rate despite all the metrics showing how efficient their passing game is, and despite having the phenomenal talent of Justin Jefferson out wide, they will not reach their goals in the 2021 season.
The Vikings will be approaching their first season without tight end Kyle Rudolph (now with the Giants). Considering how often the Vikings are in heavier sets, they absolutely need another tight end to step up. Irv Smith Jr. was second on the team in red zone targets last year. But Mike Zimmer came out in June and said Smith would not have a bigger role. He said it quite bluntly: “Honestly, I don’t think it’s any bigger role for him whatsoever. I think it’s a bigger role for Tyler Conklin. He’s kind of emerged as a guy that’s moving upward and with those two guys, we have a lot of weapons there. Irv always has been able to do what he’s been able to do whether Kyle was here or not. We’re excited about these two young tight ends that we have.”
If the Vikings can replace the comfort level Kirk Cousins had in Rudolph, and continue to use their heavy sets as a way to pass the ball downfield, they won’t miss a beat without Rudolph.
The 2020 Vikings won only seven games, down from 10, but consider how many things they gave up in the critical stats department which decide games. They were +11 in turnover margin in 2019 but dropped to -1 in 2020. They were +20 in sack margin in 2019 but dropped to -17 in 2020. They were +2 in return touchdown margin in 2019 but dropped to -4 in 2020.
If Minnesota can get positive regression in those metrics, they are set up for a strong rebound season. But it won’t be easy. Schedule makers did them no favors. Remember, the schedule makers don’t decide who you play, but they do decide when you play them. Minnesota has the fourth-worst net rest edge of any team. They play five teams who have over a week to prepare for them. They are at a rest disadvantage in four games (and a rest advantage in only one). Their bye week was negated. They play some ridiculously strong teams with a rest disadvantage, including the Ravens, the Rams, and the Packers. But if this team stays healthy, I expect they can content with at least 9 wins (their win total at PointsBet) even though it’s difficult to imaging them making a deep postseason run (+120 to make the playoffs).
Stay tuned over the next eight weeks as we preview all 32 teams with daily articles and videos right here at the preview hub. For complete team chapters featuring dozens of visualizations and 462 pages, pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2021 Football Preview’ book.
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