All that stands between the Cincinnati Bengals and a trip to the Super Bowl is a game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
No easy task, of course. But the Bengals have spent the season exceeding expectations and crushing past demons, so it’s understandable that Joe Burrow and Co. have plenty of confidence going into the game.
Sunday’s showdown is a rematch of a Week 17 classic in Cincinnati, where the Bengals got a late win that helped them secure the AFC North.
Before Round 2 kicks off, let’s take a look at some important things to know and throw out a prediction.
The state of the line (and Burrow’s clock)
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The big headline coming out of the playoff win over the Titans was the fact Burrow took nine sacks. That’s an exceptionally bad number, but it wasn’t just the line getting beat straight-up. Burrow held the ball for far too long on some of the sacks (something he’s admitted) and the loud road environment caused line communication issues. Burrow’s internal clock has to be faster, the play-calling should assist in that and the loud week of practice could be what makes the difference in a better line performance.
The line will have its hands full with Chris Jones either way. In Week 17, he had one of his best games of the season — in Cincinnati. But the wideout vs. secondary matchups are more exploitable than they were against the Titans, so if the ball is coming out faster and Burrow isn’t taking costly sacks, they can beat the Chiefs again.
Ja’Marr Chase
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The goal for the Chiefs is obvious: throw double teams, diverse brackets and more at Chase, all while not blitzing as much as the Week 17 game.
It might not be that simple.
In Week 17, Chase popped off for 266 yards and three scores. He won’t do that again. But he’s got 100-plus yards in all four of his last big starts for a reason — nobody really has an answer for him.
If the Bengals can exploit every single coverage they manage to get, he should feast. If they can force their own single coverages by route patterns that work the boundary sideline, he could have another big game and help them win it.
Limit big plays (and TE Travis Kelce)
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It sounds really cliche to say “limit big plays and win” but that’s a big key. The Bengals let seven different Raiders have gains of 15 or more yards in the first playoff game and two Titans players had gains of 40-plus yards.
But, in the second half of the Week 17 win over the Chiefs, the Bengals held Patrick Mahomes and Co. to three points. They flustered Mahomes with two-high looks and his typical way of beating it — explosive passing plays down the field — didn’t work out. If they can replicate that, the defense could have a similar performance.
Also in that Week 17 game, both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce didn’t have more than 40 yards apiece.
The storylines
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There are quite a bit in the way of storylines floating around this one. The Bengals have loved the underdog narrative all season and they actually posted a better record in road games than at home. They were also the only team undefeated against AFC playoff teams. And there’s also that matter of Burrow and Chase sitting on a 6-0 record in playoff games between LSU and the Bengals so far. The Bengals have also been downright elite in rematches this year.
So does it matter? In a way, it does — the new culture around the team hasn’t really cared for past “curses” and such, hence the 10 wins and playoff wins so far. They’ll be composed, calm and confident, if nothing else, on the second-biggest stage of them all.
Prediction
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We predicted the wins over the Raiders and Titans. But this is a whole different beast — if not one of the hardest games to predict in Bengals history.
Both Burrow and Mahomes need a matter of seconds — as fans saw last week — to put points on the board and win games, which makes trying to nail down a prediction almost impossible.
Still, if there has been one near-constant this season, it’s Ja’Marr Chase. He’s feasted, and should do so again lining up across from a Chiefs defense that doesn’t have an answer for him. That feels like the biggest x factor — the line is probably going to struggle, Burrow’s going to have to make some plays and it could be a shootout, but if Chase is playing like his usual self, the Bengals have a chance.
It’ll take all three phases again. The defense has shown it can play a sound half of football against the Chiefs. And the line has to win enough reps, combined with Burrow’s pocket savvy, to make splash plays.
But the gut says Chase makes the one or two big plays that really swing it. The fact the stage won’t be too big and the Bengals have already stood tall once against this opponent sure doesn’t hurt.
Prediction: Bengals 33, Chiefs 31
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