If there is one date that needs to be circled on the Olympic calendar, it’s Wednesday, Feb. 16.
That’s when the United States and Canada will — barring a massive upset somewhere along the way — meet in the women’s hockey final for the seventh-straight Winter Olympics, adding another high-drama chapter to one of the greatest rivalries in sports.
The United States enter the tournament as the defending champions for the first time in two decades. The Americans’ shootout victory in the final four years ago in PyeongChang ended a streak of four straight Olympic triumphs for Hockey Canada, and marked the nation’s first gold medal at the event since the inaugural competition in 1998 in Nagano.
Will Team USA start into a stretch of dominance with another gold medal in Beijing or will the Canadians re-claim the throne and once again enjoy beers and cigars at centre ice in celebration?
Is it possible that another nation is prepared to rise up and render this preamble incorrect?
We’ll soon find out.
Here’s what you need to know as the United States and Canada prepare to lock horns once again.
Who’s the favourite?
There isn’t one. This is the truest of coin flips. There are sportsbooks that lean slightly to the U.S., while others have Canada favoured. But those prices are driven solely by the markets betting into them, because separating these two teams is nearly impossible. There’s no reason why the United States and Canada won’t go off in the betting odds as co-favourites at -110.
Further down the board, Finland has the third-best odds to win, being offered at +1400 or better.
Who has the experience edge?
Further reason to avoid splitting hairs, both the United States and Canada are returning 13 skaters from the 2018 tournament in South Korea, while introducing 10 new participants apiece.
For the Canadians, Marie-Philip Poulin and Rebecca Johnston lead the list of returnees, making their fourth Olympic teams, while four others will be appearing in their third tournaments. Hilary Knight, Kendall Coyne Schofield, Brianna Decker, and Amanda Kessel are among familiar and decorated names returning for the United States.
Both in name and numbers, it seems the experience on both sides leans disproportionately toward the forward groups. Canada has five new members to its defence core compared to the Unites States’ four. However, there is one key difference in the experiences on each roster, which is that the U.S. will return netminder Maddie Rooney, who backstopped the nation to a gold medal in the shootout four years ago.
Canada, meanwhile, is transitioning out of the Shannon Szabados era, and is likely to start Ann-Renee Desbiens, who was the country’s third netminder in PyeongChang.
Experience, slightly, to the U.S.
Who enters in better form?
Canada and the United States have met each other eight times in the last six months, and the Canadians have earned the better of those matchups. After a comprehensive victory in the preliminary round, Canada beat the United States for the second time at the 2021 World Championship in the gold-medal final on Poulin’s overtime winner. That goal ended a streak of five consecutive world championships won by the Americans.
The two nations then squared off in a six-game Rivalry Series in the final three months of 2021. Canada won the first two and final two meetings in that competition, taking the series 4-2. That allowed the Canadians to claim six of the eight total clashes between the two countries in 2021.
While that’s definitely an edge for Canada, only two of its six wins were won by multiple goals, and one of those wins was aided by an empty netter. The margins are razor thin, even when the results lean in one direction.
Who are the breakout candidates?
Sarah Fillier is one to watch for Canada. The 21-year-old Olympic debutante was second to Poulin in Canadian scoring in the events leading into Beijing.
The United States’ breakout candidate might come from the back end. Caroline Harvey, 19, figures to play a prominent role on a revamped defensive core after debuting with the senior team in 2021.
Legacy opportunities
Poulin is on the path to becoming arguably the greatest player in the history of the women’s competition. She’s still two gold medals shy of becoming the most decorated player in history; that distinction belongs to Canadian legends Hayley Wickenheiser and Jayna Hefford. Her collection of singular moments, however, knows no comparison.
With two game-winners in Olympic finals already in her career, as well as three overtime winners in the eight games between Canada and the Unites States in the last six months alone — including the aforementioned world championship final — Poulin has made a habit of contributing when it matters the most. A repeat of these heroics in Beijing will only further cement her place as one of the game’s greatest players of all time, and at 30 this hardly needs to be her Olympic swan song.
Hilary Knight also has a chance to build on her Hall of Fame resume for the Unites States. The 32-year-old is looking to add a second gold medal to her Olympic haul, which also features two silvers. As an eight-time world champion, a victory in Beijing for the United States would see her collection of gold medals at major competitions increase to 10. For comparison sake, Poulin has just four.
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