Oct. 1—As we enter the final weekend of the regular season, the American League Wild Card race remains a complete mess.
With three games to play, four teams are still in contention for the two AL Wild Card spots: the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. Any number of potential outcomes are still on the table, as are some truly wild tiebreakers that would be unprecedented in the sport’s history.
So what can we expect over the next few days? Chaos is the only certainty, but here’s where things stand and what might happen depending on how things shake out.
Just keep winning
While there are still a litany of possible outcomes, the playoff path for the Red Sox remains fairly straightforward: win every game and they’re in.
The Red Sox have a favorable draw for the final weekend in facing off against a last-place Washington Nationals team that won’t have ace Patrick Corbin available.
There is one notable drawback to facing the Nationals, though. Since they’ll be playing in a National League park the Red Sox won’t have the designated hitter for the series, which will make it difficult to get both J.D. Martinez and Kyle Schwarber in the lineup.
There isn’t much room for error, though, and even taking two out of three could open up the Red Sox to unfavorable outcomes. The Blue Jays will be playing three at home against the last place Baltimore Orioles, while the Mariners will hosting a below-average Los Angeles Angels team that has already announced Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch again this season. Either team could easily win out.
The Yankees have the toughest road in hosting the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays, but with the Rays possibly resting key players for the playoffs the Yankees could take advantage.
Sox hold tiebreakers
What happens if the Red Sox finish tied with one of their competitors? The good news for Boston is they hold the tiebreaker against all three of the other Wild Card contenders, having won the season series against the Yankees (10-9), Blue Jays (10-9) and Mariners (4-3). That means any tiebreaker or play-in game would be held at Fenway Park.
If Boston and another team finish tied atop the Wild Card standings, they would advance to the AL Wild Card Game and the Red Sox would host.
If the tie was for the second Wild Card spot, those teams would face off in a Game 163 on Monday. Essentially, this would be a play-in game for the play-in game, and in that scenario the Red Sox would host before hitting the road for the AL Wild Card Game.
What if we have a three or four-way tie?
Let’s suppose things get really chaotic and we finish with three or more teams tied at season’s end. What happens then?
In the event of a three-way tie, the teams would be designated Club A, Club B and Club C. To break the tie, Club A would host Club B, and depending on the circumstances one of those teams would then face Club C. The Red Sox would most likely have first choice of which designation they want by virtue of their tiebreaker advantages.
If the three-way tie is for both Wild Card spots, then the winner of Club A vs. Club B would earn one of the Wild Card bids and the loser would face Club C on the road in a win-or-go-home game for the second spot. The two teams that advance would then meet in the AL Wild Card Game. In this scenario being Club A would be the ideal pick, since you would get two shots of making the Wild Card Game while also hosting the first tiebreaker game.
What if the three-way tie is only for the last Wild Card spot? Then Club A vs. Club B would become an elimination game, and the winner would advance to host Club C with the last Wild Card spot on the line. In this scenario, being Club C would probably be best since you only have to win one game (albeit on the road).
How about if things get really weird and all four teams finished tied at season’s end? In that case it would actually be a bit more straightforward. The four teams would be designated Clubs A, B, C and D, with Clubs A and B and Clubs C and D meeting in play-in games. The winners would then advance to the AL Wild Card Game, and we’d be off to the races from there.
Any of these outcomes would guarantee that whoever eventually advances to the AL Divisional Series will have already won at least two, and possibly three, one-game playoffs to make the main field. That would be a logistical nightmare for any of the teams involved, but it would undoubtedly be great for baseball and make for one of the most memorable weeks in the sport’s history.