No longer are there many teams within striking distance of securing a No. 1 seed in the men’s NCAA basketball tournament.
Only six realistic contenders are left after Duke and Wisconsin both suffered unexpected home losses this past weekend.
In the best position appears to be Gonzaga, who likely needs only to win the WCC tournament to assure the No. 1 overall seed. Behind the Zags, Baylor, Arizona, Auburn, Kansas and Kentucky all still have work left to do this week to seize one of the other three spots on the NCAA tournament’s top seed line.
How safe is Gonzaga? Does Arizona have any hope of catching the Zags for the West Region’s No. 1 seed? Could either the Big 12 or SEC land two No. 1 seeds? Here’s a look at where the race stands with less than a week remaining until Selection Sunday:
1. Gonzaga (24-3, 13-1, NET: 1, KenPom: 1)
Q1 record: 8-3
Q2 record: 2-0
Q3 or Q4 losses: 0
Best wins: Texas Tech, UCLA, Texas, Saint Mary’s
Losses: Duke, Alabama, Saint Mary’s
Path to a No. 1 seed: When the selection committee revealed its in-season top 16 a little over two weeks ago, chairman Tom Burnett explained that Gonzaga’s non-league wins separated the Zags from other No. 1 overall seed contenders. “They beat Texas Tech. They beat UCLA. They beat Texas,” Burnett said. Gonzaga has since dropped a game at 24-win Saint Mary’s, but with every other top team taking at least one loss too, that alone probably won’t be enough to jeopardize the Zags’ standing. If Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament Tuesday night, the Zags will likely be the NCAA tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. If they lose, they probably remain on the No. 1 line but open the door for Arizona to wrest away the top seed in the geographically friendly West Region.
2. Baylor (26-5, 14-4, NET: 4, KenPom: 4)
Q1 record: 11-4
Q2 record: 7-1
Q3 or Q4 losses: 0
Best wins: Kansas, Villanova, Michigan State, Texas (2)
Losses: at Kansas, at Alabama, Texas Tech (2), Oklahoma State
Path to a No. 1 seed: Even after losing four starters from last year’s national championship team and enduring a couple of crippling late-season injuries, head coach Scott Drew has piloted Baylor to the cusp of another No. 1 seed. The Big 12 co-champs enter the postseason with a national-best 11 quadrant 1 victories and only one loss against a team outside the current AP Top 25. The only way Baylor could be in jeopardy of dropping to the No. 2 line is if it crashes out of the Big 12 tournament against middling Oklahoma in the quarterfinals Thursday. That could leave the Bears vulnerable to be leapfrogged if, say, Kansas wins the Big 12 tournament and Auburn or Kentucky wins the SEC tournament.
3. Arizona (28-3, 18-2, NET: 2, KenPom: 2)
Q1 record: 5-3
Q2 record: 9-0
Q3 or Q4 losses: 0
Best wins: at Illinois, UCLA, USC (2), Michigan
Losses: at Tennessee, at UCLA, at Colorado
Path to a No. 1 seed: It didn’t take Tommy Lloyd long to prove that he was the correct choice as head coach to lead Arizona back to prominence. The longtime Gonzaga associate head coach has molded the Wildcats into the Pac-12’s best team and a national title threat. With only three losses and none outside Quadrant 1, Arizona’s case for a No. 1 seed is nearly unassailable if the Wildcats reach Saturday’s Pac-12 title game, let alone win it. That probably won’t be enough for Arizona to overtake Gonzaga as the No. 1 seed in the West, but it would keep the Wildcats from being the No. 2 seed in the Zags’ region.
4. Auburn (27-4, 15-3, NET: 10, KenPom: 7)
Q1 record: 8-4
Q2 record: 6-0
Q3 or Q4 losses: 0
Best wins: Kentucky, Alabama (2), LSU, Murray State
Losses: at UConn, at Arkansas, at Florida, at Tennessee
Path to a No. 1 seed: Auburn has looked shaky since snatching a No. 1 seed during the committee’s in-season bracket reveal 16 days ago. The Tigers dropped games at Florida and at Tennessee, and needed overtime to survive Mississippi State’s upset bid. Where that leaves Bruce Pearl’s outright SEC champs is with work left to do to ensure a No. 1 seed. Win the SEC tournament, and the Tigers would leave no doubt. Fall short, and someone could bypass them. Kentucky would have a strong argument if it wins the SEC tournament, especially if it has to go through Auburn to do it. Same with Kansas if it makes a deep Big 12 tournament run.
5. Kansas (25-6, 14-4, NET: 7, KenPom: 9)
Q1 record: 10-5
Q2 record: 7-1
Q3 or Q4 losses: 0
Best wins: Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Michigan State
Losses: Dayton, at Texas Tech, Kentucky, at Texas, at Baylor, at TCU
Path to a No. 1 seed: Eight times in Bill Self’s tenure, Kansas has claimed a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Jayhawks might not be a No. 1 if this year’s tournament started today, but they have a potential path if they can win the Big 12 tournament. Three wins in three days in Kansas City might be enough for Kansas to overtake co-Big 12 champ Baylor or to capitalize if either Arizona or Auburn lose early in their respective conference tournaments. The other issue for the Jayhawks is the head-to-head beatdown they endured at home against Kentucky earlier this season. The committee is likely to take that outcome into consideration if it’s Kentucky vs. Kansas for the final No. 1 seed and both resumes are remotely similar.
6. Kentucky (25-6, 14-4, NET: 5, KenPom: 3)
Q1 record: 8-6
Q2 record: 4-0
Q3 or Q4 losses: 0
Best wins: at Kansas, Tennessee, Alabama (2), LSU
Losses: Duke, at Notre Dame, at Auburn, at LSU, at Tennessee, at Arkansas
Path to a No. 1 seed: For a team that is likely on the outside of the No. 1 seed picture entering conference tournament play, Kentucky has a relatively clear path to changing that. The Wildcats would be difficult to overlook if they win the SEC tournament, especially if that meant going through Alabama, Tennessee and Auburn to do it. Three wins in Tampa Bay would very likely be enough to overcome the razor-thin advantage that Auburn currently holds over Kentucky. And it would also probably be enough to narrow any gap with Kansas, making it more likely that the committee would take Kentucky’s 20-point rout at Allen Fieldhouse into account.
7. Duke (26-5, 16-4, NET: 9, KenPom: 6)
Q1 record: 5-1
Q2 record: 5-3
Q3 or Q4 losses: 1 (at Florida State)
Best wins: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wake Forest (2), North Carolina
Losses: at Ohio State, Miami, at Florida State, at Virginia, North Carolina
Path to a No. 1 seed: North Carolina’s stunning victory Saturday didn’t just spoil Mike Krzyzewski’s retirement party. The Tar Heels also may have snuffed out Duke’s faint hopes of ascending to the NCAA tournament’s top seed line. While Duke’s two marquee non-league wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga serve as a reminder of this team’s potential, the rest of the Blue Devils’ resume is pretty empty. Their next best win is … at North Carolina? Or at Wake Forest? They’ve also dropped a pair of games to teams who aren’t NCAA tournament contenders. The weakness of the rest of the ACC doesn’t give Duke much chance to help itself this week. Would beating North Carolina in the ACC title game be cathartic? Heck, yes. Would it vault the Blue Devils past some of the teams above them in the race for the final No. 1 seed? Probably not.