ORLANDO — After four-plus years of angst, dozens of players considered and seven months’ worth of World Cup qualifiers, the equation for the U.S. men is now very simple.
Win Sunday night, and they’re effectively in the World Cup.
Yes, there is an outside chance they could get bumped in the last game and, given what happened in the last World Cup cycle, that alone would create panic among the fan base. But the scenario isn’t remotely the same as it was four years ago, with the USMNT in a far stronger position now.
More importantly, this isn’t the same U.S. team as it was four years ago.
“I know there are similarities to last time but we’re looking forward,” coach Gregg Berhalter said Saturday. “I don’t think this is a group that looks back. We acknowledge what happened in the past. It’s part of who we are as a U.S. men’s national team. But we have to forge our own path. And tomorrow is a good time to do it.”
Concacaf’s top three teams automatically advance to the World Cup in Qatar later this year, with the fourth-place team going to a playoff in June against a team from Oceania. Unlike the last cycle, when an awful start essentially left the U.S. men playing catchup for the rest of qualifying, the Americans are currently second.
They qualify with a win over Panama combined with a loss or draw by fourth-place Costa Rica, which plays El Salvador in a game that starts two hours earlier. A tie with Panama also gets the USMNT in if Costa Rica loses.
Even if Costa Rica wins Sunday, the Ticos would have to beat the USMNT in the final qualifier Wednesday AND score at least seven more goals than the Americans. Possible, but not likely.
So long as the USMNT takes care of its own business, that is.
“We hope to qualify for the World Cup tomorrow,” goalkeeper Zack Steffen said. “But our focus is on getting three points tomorrow. That’s mandatory at home.”
As devastating as it was to miss the 2018 World Cup, the USMNT’s first absence since 1986, it has led to a better U.S. team. And not in the “whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” way.
U.S. Soccer had no choice but to do a complete reboot after the 2018 debacle. Christian Pulisic, DeAndre Yedlin and Kellyn Acosta are the only holdovers from the previous qualifying cycle. They have been joined by what is easily the best generation of talent the Americans have ever had.
Gio Reyna, Yunus Musah, Ricardo Pepi and Gianluca Busio are all playing in the top European leagues, and not one of them is 20 yet. Sergino Dest, the Barcelona defender who is missing this window with an injury, is 21. Tim Weah is 22.
Even seemingly grizzled veterans like Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie, who is currently out with a broken foot, are only 23.
While that youth and inexperience causes the occasional hiccup or letdown – see the 1-1 draw with Canada in the first home qualifier this cycle, or the 1-0 loss in Panama – there have been glimpses of the United States’ formidable potential.
The Americans beat arch-rival Mexico three times in a calendar year for the first time in 2021, and two of those wins brought tournament titles. While the USMNT collected an important point in Thursday’s 0-0 draw against El Tri, a result that would have been cause for celebration in years past because of the U.S. struggles at Azteca, it was considered something of a disappointment given the chances the Americans missed.
Even as the competition in Concacaf has gotten stiffer – who had Canada leading the standings in this cycle? – the Americans have built a team that should make it to Qatar. And, if they do, have the potential to make a deep run.
“The team’s done a really good job going into all these games and knowing the prize that’s at the end of it if we’re successful but also keeping our heads and keeping that one-game-at-a-time attitude,” Antonee Robinson said. “We’re trying to get the job done and knowing that, hopefully if we’ve done our part, there could be a great reward at the end of it.”
It took a near-perfect storm of unfortunate circumstances to keep the USMNT out of the World Cup in 2018. Win Sunday, and the fears of a repeat can finally be put to rest.
Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on Twitter @nrarmour.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: USMNT’s World Cup 2022 qualifying won’t end like last time