Four years ago, the Yankees were on the cusp of a new era. Coming off the 2017 American League Championship Series, the young, home-grown Baby Bombers had arrived and announced their intentions to be back.
Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino were the faces of what many thought would be a new Yankees’ dynasty. Now, those Baby Bombers are in the prime of their careers and so far they only have one American League East title in that span. They’ve lost in the ALDS twice, lost in the ALCS twice and in the worst year of Aaron Boone’s tenure they did not advance out of the Wild Card game this year.
“They were so talented coming up. They just looked like they could change the game with their power and ability,” said one National League executive who has scouted the Yankees for years this spring. “But those expectations, being nicknamed the ‘Baby Bombers,’ it’s only a New York thing. Winning a World Series is hard. Winning the division is hard. They have been competitive every year, which is impressive, especially when you add in the injuries they’ve had.
“But the expectations were probably too high.”
And now the window of opportunity for these Baby Bombers to deliver on their promise and win a title could be closing as Judge and Sanchez are scheduled to hit free agency in 2023, and the Yankees need to decide if they will exercise an option on the extension they gave Severino in 2019.
So where are the Baby Bombers heading into the final year before they would be hitting free agency?
Judge finally turned in a season that Yankees fans had hoped for when he had his AL Rookie of the Year season. The mammoth slugger slashed .287/.373/.544 with 39 homers, 98 RBI and a .916 OPS. After three years of having injuries negatively impact his seasons, Judge played 148 games in 2021.
He has said he would like to be a Yankee for life and this would be the year for Judge to get an offseason extension if he is going to be the face of this generation’s Bombers. That’s going to be expensive.
Over six seasons, he has averaged .276/.386/.554 and a 150 OPS+. And for the analytics crowd, Judge is in the 95th or higher percentile in average exit velo, max exit velo, xwOBA (expected weighted on-baseball average), xBA (expected batting average), xSLG (expected slugging percentage) and Barrel%.
Though he will be 30 next season and in his walk year, Judge has put up the numbers that will earn him a superstar contract. The Yankees will have to go to a longer term — five to seven years — with an average annual value of around $30 million per season to expect to keep him.
For the second straight season, after starting 27 straight playoff games, Sanchez was on the bench to start — and this year, end — the playoffs. After a brutal 2020, the “Kraken” did hit 23 homers and reestablished himself as a dangerous power bat, but an inconsistent one. He finished 2021 slashing .204/.307/.423 and his future in pinstripes is once again being debated. Always an offense-first catcher, the Yankees have rotated in catching experts to try and improve his framing skills, at the expense of more traditional catching duties, like blocking. Still, Sanchez is in the bottom 17 percentile among catchers in framing.
Last year there was ridiculous talk about non-tendering Sanchez. This year there is speculation about a trade. Sanchez made $6.35 million this year and would almost certainly get a raise to avoid arbitration. That could be motivation to try and move him, but the issue becomes who would replace him? There are not a lot of catchers coming on the free-agent market who would be an upgrade. Kyle Higashioka, the preferred catcher of the ace Gerrit Cole, is not the answer. And their young catching prospects aren’t close.
When Severino signed a four-year, $40 million extension deal in spring training 2019, it seemed like the ultimate team-friendly contract. The right-hander was scratched from a spring training start a little later that year and he’s pitched all of 27.2 innings in the big league since. He had a shoulder issue that became a lat tear, forcing him to miss the first five months in 2019. He had Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and missed the entire COVID-19 pandemic abbreviated season. He had two major setbacks in his rehab this year, but looked good in the four relief appearances he made at the end of the regular season. The hope is he’s ready to be the No. 2 starter behind Cole for 2022, but obviously, after missing most of the last three seasons, he has to prove he can stay healthy.