The AFC East has suddenly become fertile ground for promising, young quarterbacks. It’s the only division in the league without a starting quarterback in his 30s, and without one who has spent at least seven years in the NFL.
All four of the starters are 25 and under. All of them were drafted in the Top 15, with three being picked in the Top 7. They are loaded with a dangerous and tantalizing combination of question marks and unlimited potential.
But make no mistake: This is still Josh Allen’s division to lose.
For now, at least, the Buffalo Bills’ 25-year-old quarterback is still the king of this growing hill. He is a legitimate MVP contender and his Bills are a legitimate threat to end up in Super Bowl LVI. For the rest of the quarterbacks and teams, this season is all about positioning themselves for the future, and maybe making a run at the Bills in 2022.
For Allen and the Bills, their future is now.
So here’s a look at what to expect in the AFC East this year, with predicted records, and teams listed in the projected order of finish:
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Let’s face it: The Bills’ competition these days isn’t the AFC East. It’s the Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, and any other team that turns out to be a contender in the conference. They were 13-3 last year and lost in the AFC championship game. They expect this to be a Super Bowl season.
So for them, the division is easy pickin’s.
Why? Allen is a good place to start, along with Stefon Diggs, who is one of the Top 5 receivers in the NFL. And they added veteran Emmanuel Sanders, who with Cole Beasley gives the receiving corps some dangerous depth. And while the Devin Singletary–Zack Moss 1-2 punch at running back isn’t among the NFL’s best, it gets the job done.
On defense, all they’re missing is a pass rush. But with Star Lotulelei back in the middle of their line, and with the addition of defensive ends Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham with their first two draft picks, maybe that’s fixed. If it is, the Bills might be unstoppable. If it’s not, they should have little trouble running the table in the AFC East.
2. New England Patriots (9-8)
Bill Belichick’s decision to cut Cam Newton and go with rookie Mac Jones at quarterback was surprising to anyone who hadn’t watched them this summer. It was clear the rookie was ready and his ceiling was higher than Newton’s at age 32. Belichick long ago proved he can win with a young quarterback, so why not try it again?
Besides, the Patriots spent a lot of money this offseason to reload, especially on offense, where they grabbed the two best tight ends on the market – Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Add in Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, and Jones has more options in the passing game than Tom Brady did in his final season in New England. And the Pats loaded up on defense, too, signing pass-rusher Matt Judon, cornerback Jalen Mills, and bringing back linebacker Kyle Van Noy.
They were 7-9 last year with a worse roster, poor quarterback play, and no firepower on offense. If Jones is as good as Belichick thinks, they should be right back in the playoff hunt.
3. Miami Dolphins (7-10)
How much do the Dolphins really believe in Tua Tagovailoa? That remains an open question after all their reported flirting with a Deshaun Watson trade this offseason. And what is Tagovailoa anyway?
Last season, he went 6-3 as a starter, but averaged only 180 yards per start, topping 300 passing yards only twice – both when he was trying to climb out of a huge hole.
The Dolphins certainly tried to make Tagovailoa more than he was last season, though. They signed the speedy Will Fuller V and drafted Jaylen Waddle, who was the most electric receiver in the draft. They’ll join DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki, giving their quarterback more than enough weapons to get the job done.
If he can, the Dolphins should be a playoff contender. Then again, it’s possible Tagovailoa is going to turn out to be the fourth-best quarterback in this division before long.
4. JETS (6-11)
Despite all the optimism around the Jets this season, the faith in Robert Saleh and the expectations of greatness for Zach Wilson, no one is expecting a dramatic turnaround from the 2-14 mess they were a year ago in just one short season. Even inside the Jets, they understand it’ll take longer than that.
And it’s not just because of a rookie quarterback. It’s because eight rookies are likely to either be starters or key players. And even most of the veterans are new to the franchise and, obviously, the systems. There has been too much change and there is too much youth and inexperience for this not to be a bumpy ride.
That said, expect this team to play hard and be competitive, and win a couple of games that will shock everyone. Unfortunately with a team this young, they’ll likely lose a couple of shockers, too.