It’s time for the season predictions for the 2021 Detroit Lions. With so many new faces in important places and so little preseason action to base anything off, the subtitle here is definitely “predictions sure to be proven absurdly wrong”, so keep that in mind as you read through them.
Without further ado, here is what the look into the crystal ball says for the Lions in the upcoming season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the team in receptions, but not receiving yards
(AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown isn’t even technically a starter in Anthony Lynn’s base two-wideout offense, but that won’t prevent him from leading all Lions receivers in catches and total targets in the passing game. He’s got the best ability to get open on the roster and he primarily operates in the short and intermediate routes where QB Jared Goff is most comfortable. However, St. Brown’s average per reception will rank among the league’s worst for players with at least 50 receptions. Because of that, Tyrell Williams and T.J. Hockenson will both top St. Brown’s total in yardage.
Trey Flowers bags 12.5 sacks
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Flowers has a career-high of just 7.5 sacks in 2018, his last season in New England. In 22 games the last two years with Detroit, Flowers has just nine. He’ll comfortably blow that total out of the water in 2021. The move back to a stand-up pass-rushing position in Aaron Glenn’s more aggressive scheme, as well as a significantly upgraded supporting cast on the defensive front, will catapult Flowers to a new career-best sack total.
The Lions will finish with the fewest made FGs of any team
(AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit has been spoiled by great kicking for decades. But Matt Prater is now in Arizona and the first three potential replacements (Randy Bullock, Matthew Wright, Zane Gonzalez) all failed to win the gig. Austin Seibert has the potential to be a good kicker, he really does. But between the inconsistency in his NFL background and the Lions’ lackluster offense, there just won’t be enough attempts or successes for Seibert. The Lions will finish with the fewest made field goals of any team and also the fewest attempts.
Jared Goff will almost exactly match Matthew Stafford’s stats from his last season in Detroit
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
In 2020, Matthew Stafford posted the following stat line for the Lions: 339 completions on 528 attempts, 64.2% completions, 4,084 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, QB Rating of 96.3. It says here that Jared Goff will be within 10 completions, 15 attempts, 50 yards and two on each of the TD and INT figures. It will take Goff an extra game (17-game schedule) to get to those numbers, but the passing results will look eerily similar from 2020 to 2021.
The Lions don’t win a single game that doesn’t feature the projected starting 5 on the offensive line
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
This is an admittedly ominous prediction of doom and gloom, especially in the context that I’m writing this roughly 20 minutes after standout LT Taylor Decker was placed on I.R. just before the Week 1 matchup against the DL-blessed 49ers. But that is what happens when a team devotes such extraordinary resources to the offensive line and neglects (relatively speaking) the skill positions. The Lions could conceivably pull out a win with reserves Logan Stenberg or Matt Nelson filling in for a spot start at guard. Maybe. No Frank Ragnow, no Decker or no Penei Sewell–even as an incredibly green rookie–means an ugly “L” for Detroit. Yes, that includes Week 1…
The defense finishes in the top 20 in both yards and points allowed
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Detroit’s defense finished dead last in 2020 in both yards surrendered (6,716) and points allowed (519). The 32.4 points-per-game allowed was the third-worst in NFL history and the most since the 1981 Baltimore Colts. The 2021 Lions defense will be markedly better. Between the investment in the line, the more aggressive and proactive scheme and a radical upgrade in team speed in the middle of the field, Aaron Glenn’s defense will rocket out of the cellar. Detroit will finish with at least 12 teams below them in both points allowed and yards given up.
The Lions win one game where they’re at least a 9-point underdog
Entering the season, the Lions are not projected to be favored in any single game. Some of the lines are quite likely to be lopsided against Dan Campbell’s team, too. They’ll pull off one upset win where they are at least 9-point underdogs. It might be the Packers in Ford Field to cap the year, it could be the Week 14 visit to Denver, it could be the Week 10 trip to Pittsburgh. Bet on it at your peril, but know that it will happen once.
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams finish within 10 total touches of one another
(AP Photo/Wade Payne)
The Lions have themselves a nice 1-2 punch at running back and an offensive coordinator in Anthony Lynn who has consistently proven he loves to use multiple backs in every game. As a result, both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will get a lot of opportunities. Swift will earn the most carries, but the split workload and Williams’ outstanding work in the passing game will keep the duo very close in total touches over the course of the season.
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