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The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills have a massive matchup on Sunday in the AFC East. The winner won’t clinch the division but they will control their fate in the division. So the stakes are enormous.

The Patriots beat the Bills, 14-10, in their first matchup in Week 13. But it was an unusual game, with snow and strong winds. It completely changed the complexion of the kicking and passing game; the Patriots threw just three times. So it’s hard to make many predictions about this game based on that one. Still, let’s dive into six bold predictions for Week 16 as the Patriots.

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The Patriots run the ball 30 times and pass it 20 times

New England should be more balanced than it was in the first matchup during a blizzard with wind gusts up to 70 miles per hour. Mac Jones had no business throwing the football, especially not with the Patriots’ running backs moving the ball efficiently, even on 46 carries.

I’m not sure the Patriots will run 46 times and throw three times in Week 16, with the weather set to be dry, clear and around 40 degrees. That said, I do think they’ll lean on the running game to attack the weakness of the Bills’ defense. Buffalo seems ready for that, suggesting they think they can stop the Patriots rushing offense. But we saw they had issues stopping Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris in Week 13. Jones will throw the ball — but the Patriots will go back to the basics. They’ll ground and pound.

No Patriots pass-catcher will have more than 50 yards

This should be a well-rounded passing attack, from Jakobi Meyers to Jonnu Smith to Hunter Henry to Brandon Bolden. New England may not have Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19/reserve), Nelson Agholor (head) or N’Keal Harry (head). But the Patriots have depth at tight end and running back to help carry the offense if they don’t have receivers.

So Jones will spread the ball around. And there probably won’t be many yards to go around.

Josh Allen commits two turnovers. Mac Jones commits none.

The Patriots and Bills have the top two defenses in the NFL. The Patriots will manage that by avoiding Jones, who might have some issues with that elite Bills defense. The Bills will completely disregard that and throw the ball repeatedly at the strength of New England’s defense: their secondary. Because of that, Bill Belichick will force Allen into costly mistakes. I think Allen has two turnovers and Jones, who should be razor-focused after a sloppy game in Week 15, plays smart, conservative ball-control offense.

CB Jalen Mills logs his first interception of the season

Mills hasn’t really been a ballhawk this year. That’s definitely a title reserved for J.C. Jackson, who has seven this season. But the Bills are likely to go after Mills in this game. Buffalo is going to throw a lot. And I think Mills will finally get that interception on an errant throw from Allen.

Call it a hunch. Call it a bold prediction. I’m putting it out there.

The Patriots convert zero fourth-down attempts

Even in a game where the Patriots were criticized for avoiding fourth-down attempts, they converted one. So this may not seem bold. But it is. If there’s one thing Bill Belichick is, it’s stubborn. In the face of incessant criticism about his conservative decision-making, he’s going to entrench himself deeper against the Bills. Belichick will trust his defense, trust his run game and avoid Jones. And that’ll mean avoiding fourth-down conversions.

The Bills rush for less than 90 yards

Buffalo has actually rushed for more than 100 yards per game over the last three weeks. That’s a major uptick for them, showing more commitment to running back Devin Singletary than at any point this season. Even with the Patriots’ run defense looking leaky, the Bills are going to go away from the run, especially if the Patriots start to put up points. So the Bills stay under 90 yards and they go all-out in letting Allen fire the ball around the field.

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