Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson insists he’s not thinking ahead and has not demanded a trade. Ideally, he’ll retire as a member of the Seahawks.
That’s what Wilson says publicly.
However, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport recently confirmed that Wilson would waive his no-trade clause for three teams — one of them being the New York Giants.
The conflicting reports on Wilson’s status aside, what would such a trade entail? We asked that very question and came up with five different scenarios.
2022 draft day trade
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If the Seahawks decide to cave and trade Wilson, the most likely scenario is that it occurs during Round 1 of the 2022 NFL draft. Once the offseason moves along beyond that, any trade scenario becomes less likely until training camp.
Given that Seattle appears determined to keep Wilson, a whole lot of chips would need to fall into place before they change their mind. It’s improbable, but not impossible (as Michael Strahan would say).
That would mean Dave Gettleman or whoever the Giants’ general manager is at the time would have to be on the horn in the days and weeks leading up to the draft. They’d have to be an earworm to Seahawks GM John Schneider — make it all he thinks about.
In this scenario, it would also mean the Giants have decided to move on from Daniel Jones and would be in pursuit of Wilson (and potentially others) before they’re put on the clock. Once that happens, the focus would likely shift to available quarterbacks.
Three-way madness?
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Trades in the NFL are relatively rare and three-team trades are like stumbling upon Bigfoot. However, they do happen from time to time and Wilson potentially being moved could open the door to that.
Should the Seahawks decide they want to ship Wilson off and the Giants become involved, sweetening the deal might become easier by involving a third team. Let’s say the Houston Texans.
With Houston and quarterback Deshaun Watson likely headed for an ugly divorce, perhaps a scenario evolves that sends Watson to Seattle, Wilson to New York and Daniel Jones to the Texans (among other moving pieces).
Again, this is improbable and even unlikely, but not impossible.
Multi-pick package
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In any scenario involving a Wilson trade, a significant number of assets are going to be on the move. But with a very limited roster and depth already lacking, the Giants might be inclined to send a boatload of picks to Seattle in this hypothetical scenario.
The Giants have two first-round picks in the 2022 NFL draft, four total picks in the top 100 and then, of course, future assets.
In a pick-heavy trade for Wilson, the Giants would likely have to part with at least two first-round picks (potentially three) and then some more sprinkles on top. That’s a significant ask, especially for a quarterback who turns 34 next season, but that’s business.
Without giving up a quality player, such a package would likely be two first-round picks (both in 2022 or possibly split), a second-round pick and then a couple of mid-round picks (ranging from Round 3 to Round 5) at minimum.
Player-heavy deal
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The Giants are among the NFL’s richest in terms of draft assets, but perhaps Gettleman or the incoming GM value them more than some of the team’s current players.
Considering the Giants will find themselves in salary cap trouble in 2022, it might make more sense for them to dangle a player package out there in any potential trade for Wilson.
What would that look like?
Some possibilities include quarterback Daniel Jones, safety Xavier McKinney, wide receiver Sterling Shepard, running back Saquon Barkley, cornerback James Bradberry or even a sign-and-trade situation with tight end Evan Engram.
In some of these cases, losing the player would be tough. In others, perhaps not so much — and it would also help clear the salary cap space needed to take on Wilson’s deal (or any potential new deal).
A forced hand
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The Seahawks hold all the chips when it comes to Wilson, his contract and his future. Whether he wants to stay in Seattle or not, they control his fate.
At the same time, we’ve seen star players put pressure on teams and demand trades and/or releases. In the case of wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., it worked. In the case of quarterback Deshaun Watson, it didn’t.
Wilson is a bright star and a powerful voice. If he truly demanded a trade and went public with it, the optics would be difficult for Seattle to manage. They would have to go to war with their star and fans would be forced to choose sides.
That doesn’t bring anything positive to the table for either side and it’s no guarantee that such pressure would work for Wilson. But if he truly hones in on the Giants (and/or a small number of other teams), it would give him at least a little potential leverage.
The situation in Seattle would really have to deteriorate in order for this to occur and right now it seems far off. But we’ll see if that’s the case come the offseason. Things tend to go from civil to sour real quick when there’s no football being played on Sundays.
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