Although there are still more than three months until the Razorbacks take the court, the fanbase has been in a full-fledged basketball frenzy on the heels of the program’s first Elite Eight appearance in 26 years.
After such a successful season, what can fans expect from the program in Head Coach Eric Musselman’s third year? Here are five bold predictions…
1. The Razorbacks will be top-3 in the SEC again
It might not seem bold to too many people, but with Kentucky and Auburn not likely staying at the bottom of the conference for more than a single year and other programs on the rise like Tennessee, Alabama, LSU and Florida, the SEC will be loaded with talent yet again. The Razorbacks finished in second place last season with a 13-4 conference record. If the conference is as competitive as expected next season, the Hogs could finish top-3 without having to win 13 conference games, but things would probably have to fall in place with tiebreakers and head-to-head matchups.
Also, if Arkansas does finish in the top-3 of the conference for the second straight year, it would be the first time it accomplished the feat since the conference did away with the East-West division split. Arkansas did finish first in the West from 1991-95 and was first overall in the SWC from 1988-91.
2. Jaylin Williams shoots 40% or better from 3
As a freshman, Williams came on strong toward the end of the year and played his role perfectly. He was a defensive presence and the best rebounder on the team. In high school, and even at times last season, Williams displayed his ability to knock down shots from the perimeter. With Musselman’s love of spacing the floor and scoring from all five spots, utilizing Williams on the perimeter more should be expected next season.
With the additions of Stanley Umude and Au’Diese Toney, Arkansas added some legitimate scoring threats at all three levels with the size to play on the inside regularly. Whether it’s posting him in the corner or using him in the pick and pop action to make teams worry about his passing ability, Williams should drastically improve his three-point percentage from his freshman season, which was a respectable 30.4%.
3. Two players from Arkansas are taken in next year’s NBA Draft
In Year 2, Musselman produced the program’s first one-and-done player in Moses Moody. After Year 3, Musselman should have even more marketing material for recruits. He’s assembled a staff with over 70 years of NBA experience, and plays a style that uses NBA terminology and plays in a professional scheme. There are plenty of quick-hitters and in-game adjustments on matchups, combined with next-level film study and attention to detail. Talent alone could get these players drafted, but the knowledge the players gain is invaluable.
It’s hard to say exactly which two players it would be so early, but it would not shock me in the slightest if Davonte Davis and Au’Diese Toney were the two draft picks.
4. Au’Diese Toney will be the team’s leading scorer
Admittedly this is an unpopular pick for leading scorer with all the offensive weapons this roster boasts, but Toney has the advantage of being the most versatile and playing the position that is the focal point of Musselman’s offense. The other two leading scorers in Musselman’s tenure at Arkansas, Mason Jones and Moses Moody, both primarily played the 3 or 4 spot. Having such a versatile and talented player at that spot is crucial for team success under Musselman, and Toney is poised to have even more of a breakout year than he did last year at Pitt.
This is not to say that other players aren’t capable of scoring in droves. KK Robinson is the best shooter on the team and is back healthy this offseason, Davonte Davis regularly scored in double figures in the second half of the season, JD Notae was the third leading scorer last year with 12.8 points per game, Stanley Umude averaged nearly 22 points at South Dakota State last year and Chris Lykes has averaged almost 14 points in his career in the ACC.
Toney is the most balanced and versatile player on both ends of the floor, defending at a high level and shooting 34% from three. Having so many threats around the floor might mean Toney leads the team in scoring at just 12 points per game, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
5. Arkansas will make the Final Four
One game away from the Final Four last year, the Razorbacks were eliminated from the NCAA Tournament by eventual national champion Baylor. Although it is not as cut and dry as “this year’s team is better so should make it further in the tournament,” it is not unreasonable to think this roster is capable of such a feat.
Last year’s roster was talented, obviously. But they far surpassed most expectations and played above their level much of the season because of how well they were coached. The gap in talent between last year’s roster and this roster is fairly large, especially regarding transfer additions.
Justin Smith was arguably Arkansas’ most important player last year, but was the only grad transfer addition that made much of an impact. Sit out transfers Connor Vanover and Notae played big roles for the whole season and are back for their third year in the program. The young core of Davis, Robinson, and Williams are all back as well, giving the Razorbacks a solid foundation from that Elite Eight run to build off of.
It is not a guarantee that each of those players gets better with another year in the system, but with a developmental track record like Musselman has, it can be assumed that they each will. Collectively, the additions of Toney, Umude, Lykes, and Wade are much better on paper than any transfer haul in program history. On top of that, the players all fit the system and the program in such a way that making a Final Four run is well within the realm of possibility.