On paper, the Green Bay Packers are as worthy of a Super Bowl contender as any team in football entering the 2021 season. The NFL’s reigning MVP is back, the skill positions are loaded with talent and only a few defenses can claim to have more individual difference-makers. Almost every important player that helped power Matt LaFleur’s team to 26 regular-season wins and back-to-back NFC title game appearances is back in 2021.
Three important factors will determine if the Packers are capable of playing in the Super Bowl LVI on Feb. 13, 20222 in Los Angeles.
Offensive line play
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It’s possible only two things could prevent the Packers – the leaders in points scored a year ago – from being one of the NFL’s most dominant offenses in 2021: An injury to Aaron Rodgers, or a significant regression from the offensive line. The first scenario is always possible, but there’s no sense in actively worrying about the possibility of an injury to an individual player. The second is the real potential scare. The Packers were a dominant offensive line a year ago, but they’ll start this season without All-Pro center Corey Linsley (free agency) and All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari (PUP list). As a result, Matt LaFleur and offensive line coach Adam Stenavich are planning to play Pro Bowl guard Elgton Jenkins at left tackle while starting a pair of rookies (Josh Myers, Royce Newman) on the interior. Last season, Linsley and Jenkins created a dominant pair inside. Now, the Packers will have major question marks at all three interior positions for at least six games. While Jenkins has the team’s full confidence at left tackle, the adjustment to the perimeter is a difficult one, and he’s leaving behind a Pro Bowl-sized hole at left guard. Can Myers and Newman play like veterans right away? The Packers had a pass-blocking grade at Pro Football Focus of at least 65.0 in all but five games last season. LaFleur’s team went 2-3 in the other five games, including both losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rodgers took only 25 total sacks in 18 games, but nine came in the losses to the Bucs. The worry here is that even a slight regression from the offensive line could make a big difference, not necessarily during a 17-game regular season, but in the postseason when protecting the quarterback against elite pass-rushes is paramount. Again, the goal here is the Super Bowl. The Packers must survive the first month and a half without Bakhtiari, get Myers and Newman playing at competent levels and hope the whole thing gels together by January. This offensive line isn’t as good or experienced as last year’s, but it must play better in crunch time if the Packers are going to survive the playoff gauntlet in the NFC.
Pass-rush
Green Bay Packers defensive end Kingsley Keke (96) sacks Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) during their football game Sunday, December 6, 2020, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
The Packers’ pass-rush took a step back in 2020. Za’Darius Smith and Kenny Clark weren’t as productive. Preston Smith had a disappointing season. And despite a few encouraging performances late in the season aided by Rashan Gary, the Packers’ rush came up mostly empty in the NFC title game against Tom Brady. Will the whole group rebound in 2021? There’s certainly reason for optimism, but also reason for concern. If everyone is healthy, this could be one of the most talented and deepest pass-rushing groups in the NFL. The Packers think they have a three-headed edge-rushing monster to unleash in the two Smiths and Gary, who looks ready for a breakout season in Year 3, and Clark and Kingsley Keke could be a highly disruptive interior duo. Not many defenses have more than two or three players with legitimate pass-rushing ability. The Packers have five. But what if Za’Darius Smith’s back injury lingers all season? What if Preston Smith doesn’t bounce back despite all the financial incentives? What if Gary’s ascension stalls? What if Clark and Keke are sidetracked by nagging injuries again? There is potential for the pass-rush to fall apart. It’s no secret. Teams win the postseason with the pass-rush. It’s hard to win big games without having players who can consistently affect the quarterback. The Bucs won the pass-rushing battle in the NFC title game and Super Bowl and were immortalized as champions. If the Packers want to be playing in Los Angeles in mid-February, the pass-rush has to lead the way. This is a group that could be the driving force of a championship run if everything comes together.
Cornerbacks after Jaire Alexander
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The Packers have three pieces to a Super Bowl-caliber secondary. Jaire Alexander, Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage are excellent. It’s the two other pieces that could prevent Matt LaFleur’s team from playing in February. Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan already showed how two vulnerable pieces in a secondary can cause the whole thing to fold in a big game. It’s possible both King and Sullivan will get a chance at redemption in 2021. They both returned on one-year deals and are likely starters in Week 1. But the Packers also drafted Eric Stokes in the first round and are expected to experiment with different players in the slot, creating a new dynamic. Can the Packers get more consistent play on the perimeter opposite Alexander? And is there enough depth at the position overall to turn a good passing defense into a great one? These could be season-defining questions. Stokes might be the key to everything. King, now entering Year 5, is what he is. Sullivan may improve during his second season as a starter but likely has a limited ceiling. Stokes, with blazing speed and a short memory, needs to develop quickly and become a starting-caliber player as a rookie. If he can be a Sam Shields-like player opposite Alexander, the potential of the Packers defense increases ten-fold in 2021. Can the Packers win a lot of games with some mix of King and Sullivan playing most of the snaps at cornerback behind Alexander? Sure. But getting to a Super Bowl requires a special team, and the Packers could come up short again if the No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks don’t improve.
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