The NFL’s annual free-agent frenzy is already under way and it has very quickly changed so much about the NFL Draft. By the time the dust settles, pretty much everything we think we know about the draft will probably end up being wrong.
But at least for now, the focus has become a little sharper. Things can still change fast – and they probably will – but for now, here’s another look at the Top 10, with the help of an array of NFL scouts and other sources, as usual…
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson
Hey big spenders! The Jaguars were the stars of the opening hours of free agency, doling out a quarter of a billion dollars in contracts on the first day of the “legal tampering” period. In doing so, they checked a bunch of needs off their offseason to-do list, including along the offensive line. After giving the franchise tag to LT Cam Robinson and signing free-agent G Brandon Scherff, it seems unlikely they’d go offensive line with the top overall pick. That brings the world back to where it’s always been – with a pass-rusher going first. The 6-6, 265-pound Hutchinson, who had 14 sacks last year, is widely viewed as the cream of this crop.
2. Detroit Lions – Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
Edge rushers going 1-2 was all the rage a month ago, and no one seems to think it will happen now, especially with the perception that Thibodeaux’s stock is falling. I’ve also had a few people mention that if anyone is going to be alarmed by his perceived lack of “fire,” it’s going to be fiery Lions coach Dan Campbell. But Campbell also is a guy who thinks he can light the flame under anyone and he knows how badly the Lions need a pass rusher. They brought Charles Harris back for two years, $14 million, but they still need a real difference-maker up front. That could be Thibodeaux. One caveat, though: There was a lot of talk at the Combine about QB Malik Willis eventually being the pick here. A lot of talk. So stay tuned on that.
3. Houston Texans – Alabama OT Evan Neal
It is impossible to figure out what’s going on in Houston these days, and it might not be clear until they finally trade Deshaun Watson (and possibly a few others) and maybe end up with another first-round pick (or two). They need … well, just about everything. But one way or another they are going to be going with a young quarterback, and they’ll need to protect him. They do have left tackle Laremy Tunsil and just restructured his contract, so apparently he’s sticking around for another year. They could use an upgrade on the right side, though, and a future left tackle if they decide to dump Tunsil and his salary after the season. New Texans coach Lovie Smith’s inclination is probably to help his defense first, so if one of those edge rushers slip, they could grab him. But at the moment, I don’t have them slipping, so a 6-7, 350-pound tackle it is.
4. JETS – Florida State DE Jermaine Johnson
An example of how free agency changes things. I had an offensive lineman penciled in here, and then they spent $27.5 million on G Laken Tomlinson. So I switched to a cornerback and then they went and spent $33 million on CB D.J. Reed. I grudgingly decided maybe they would take the “unicorn” — Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton – but then they went and signed S Jordan Whitehead. So life and the draft come at you fast. What I know for the moment is the Jets need pass rushers and I know Robert Saleh wants to bolster his defensive line. Is this a tad high for the 6-5, 254-pound Johnson? Maybe. It’s hard to justify taking the third guy at a position with the fourth overall pick. But he’s a pure edge rusher with 4.58 speed who had 11 ½ sacks last season. If you put him on one side and returning vet Carl Lawson on the other, all in front of that new-look secondary? Suddenly that has the look of an impressive and potentially dangerous defense.
5. GIANTS – N.C. State OT Ikem ‘Ickey’ Ekwonu
I’m not sure there’s a more dreamy scenario for the Giants than this athletic, 6-4, 320-pounder dropping to them. He had been a real possibility at No. 1 before the Jaguars went on their spending spree. The Jets might have grabbed him too before they gave Pro Bowl G Laken Tomlinson a three-year, $40 million deal. The spot to watch now seems to be the Texans at 3, which as stated above is quite the wild card. The Giants did sign two offensive linemen in free agency, but they are interior linemen – center Jon Feliciano and guard Mark Glowinski – so they still have a glaring hole at right tackle. It has to be a lock that they will fill it with the best available tackle right here. And if Ekwonu is here, they will celebrate with champagne.
6. Panthers – Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett
There hasn’t been a quarterback available in the past two years that hasn’t interested the Panthers, and now they are wallet-deep in the Watson stakes. If they get him, they’ll obviously have to deal this pick to the Texans. But if they don’t, I don’t get the sense they’re willing to give Sam Darnold another year all to himself. They feel like a good spot for the first quarterback off my board, and for much of this process the top guy has seemed to be Pickett, who most scouts believe is the closest thing this class has to a pro-ready QB, even if he doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the group.
7. GIANTS – Cincinnati CB Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner
James Bradberry figures to be an ex-Giant at some point, and even if he’s not the Giants will need some depth at the position and a future, since Bradberry is in the final year of his contract. Also, perhaps you’ve heard: Cornerbacks are the backbone of the Don ‘Wink’ Martindale defensive scheme. They tend to be even more important than pass rushers. And ‘Sauce’ is a good one – a true No. 1 corner who can match up with the best receivers. He’s got great size (6-3, 190) and speed (a 4.41 in the 40), terrific instincts and all the confidence you’d expect from a top corner. He never gave up a TD in college, and when he was asked at the Combine how he’d react when it finally happens in the NFL, he said “I don’t have plans on giving one up in the NFL.” I think the Giants would like that.
8. Falcons – Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton
Yeah, he’s a “unicorn,” as Saleh said, but I’m still skeptical that the 6-4, 220-pounder will end up as a Top 5 pick. There are enough people who like him, though, that I think once he gets out of the Top 5 the value will be too high for some to pass up. The Falcons are one of those teams, assuming they don’t go for a young quarterback to become the heir apparent to the aging Matt Ryan (They too appear to be in on Watson, so maybe they will). They could use a receiver too, thanks to the suspension of Calvin Ridley, which makes them a strong candidate to trade down if someone wants to move up and grab a quarterback ahead of …
9. Seattle Seahawks – Liberty QB Malik Willis
A new addition to the Top 10, courtesy of trading their franchise QB, Russell Wilson, to the Denver Broncos. That left the Seahawks with a pretty obvious hole at the NFL’s most important position. It’s also one they have yet to fill in free agency and they don’t appear to be willing to jump into the Watson sweepstakes. So unless they are willing to commit long-term to Drew Lock, who came over from Denver in the big trade, they figure to be eyeing a young quarterback. The book on Willis around the league is he has all the skills and the most potential of any quarterback in the draft, but could use a year (or two) of seasoning before he’s ready to take over. The Seahawks seem to be rebuilding, so they can afford to give him that time.
10. JETS – Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson
There are so many intriguing options here. The Jets could take a tackle, like Mississippi State’s Charles Cross, but if they don’t move Mekhi Becton they’d be dooming a Top 10 pick to a rookie season on the sidelines, which doesn’t make sense. They could double down on their defensive line, though that seems excessive.
They also could trade down, which I think is their best play, and is something I continue to hear they would prefer to do. Until it gets closer to the draft, though, they are still here and it’s hard to overlook their need at receiver. I still say there’s better value if they wait until the top of the second round where there will be some good ones who have fallen. But it will still be tempting to take a player they view as the best at his position. It’s unclear who they view as the best receiver in the bunch, but the explosive Wilson has to be a top contender after running a 4.38 at the Combine.