There doesn’t seem to be a Trevor Lawrence-caliber quarterback prospect in the 2022 NFL draft, but a lot can change between now and next April.
Around this time last year, the likes of Jamie Newman and Brock Purdy were being mocked in the first round of 2021 mock drafts. Zach Wilson was merely a blip on the radar, and Mac Jones had yet to prove himself as a first-round talent. Lawrence, Justin Fields and Trey Lance were all still seen as Round 1 passers, but the overall dynamic of the quarterback class was much different from how the class would actually be selected.
The general consensus leans slightly towards Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler as the QB1 in the 2022 draft, but he has far from run away with that top spot at this point. There are a handful of other quarterbacks who could project as the top player at his position, and each of them stake a reasonable claim to that title.
Here is the case for and against some of the top QB1 candidates in the 2022 NFL draft:
Spencer Rattler | Oklahoma
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Rattler’s natural arm talent is arguably the best in college football heading into the 2021 season. In his first season as a starter for the Sooners, Rattler displayed impressive velocity behind his throws and an ability to make just about any throw on the field. Not only does he have a cannon of an arm that allows him to hit receivers with distance and zip, but he also offers the ability to make tough throws off-platform. Regardless of whether his feet are set or if he’s throwing with a side-arm release, he is able to throw in a manner that the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Zach Wilson all displayed coming out of college. Combine Rattler’s arm strength with impressive anticipation, pinpoint accuracy and above-average athletic ability, and you have the making of a potential NFL quarterback. That said, for what Rattler displayed down the stretch in 2020, his play was quite erratic to start off the year. He threw five interceptions in his first four games and fell victim to upset losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to start the year off at 1-2. Rattler’s arm strength can come to be a weakness at times, in that he trusts his arm a bit too much and has a gunslinger mentality that sees him throw into double coverage often and pass over checkdowns for riskier throws. His accuracy can be affected by incoming pressure. Plus, at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, Rattler doesn’t necessarily have great size for an NFL quarterback. While size has proven not to be as hard-pressed of an issue in recent years, he is still on the smaller side for his position.
Malik Willis | Liberty
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If you’re looking for a dual-threat quarterback in next year’s class, Willis is your guy. Willis has an impressive arm and deliver accurate bullets both in and out of the pocket. His throws consistently have a nice amount of zip behind them, allowing him to thread the needle effectively and hit his targets in tight windows. He has an acute sense of anticipation and knows how to place his throws right where they need to be. With his combination of pure arm strength and touch both from intermediate and deep ranges, he offers plenty to like from an arm talent perspective. He’s not just a threat through the air, though: Willis can make you pay on the ground. He possesses incredible straight-line speed and lateral agility for any athlete, let alone a quarterback. Very few quarterbacks coming out in recent years have had the wheels in the open field and the ease to change directions in space that he has. Willis offers elite raw tools to work with going forward and is a threat to be accounted for both as a passer and as a runner. Willis’ inconsistency in big games is something that will have to be ironed out for him to be the first quarterback selected in 2022. He completed 40.6 percent of his passing attempts with three interceptions and no touchdowns against N.C. State, and he threw two interceptions and no touchdowns in Liberty’s bowl game against Coastal Carolina. Despite quality starts against Syracuse and Virginia Tech, Willis’ decision-making against superior competition can see him dig himself into a hole. Like Rattler, Willis is also on the smaller side for a quarterback at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds. He also makes a lot of his plays out of structure, and while that’s far from a bad thing in today’s NFL, he may not be a great fit in a more traditional offense.
Sam Howell | North Carolina
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A three-year starter by the time the 2021 season comes to an end, Howell has already had an impressive collegiate resume. He was a starter as a freshman and has played a big role in the turnaround of North Carolina’s football program. His completion percentage and overall yardage per game increased from 2019 to 2020, and his linear progression has shown up on tape. Howell is an accurate passer with sound mechanics, a compact throwing motion and good follow-through in his lower half. The middle of the field is a place of comfortability for him, as he does a good job of leading his targets open and hitting them in stride. Howell is a tough quarterback who is able to take a licking in the pocket and still maintain accuracy and composure under pressure. He has a solid arm and can hit his receivers in tight windows, and his experience running RPOs effectively should be helpful for him at the next level. Though maybe not the flashiest quarterback in the class, Howell seems like a safe bet to go Round 1 at this stage and looks the part of a future starter. Though he’s polished, Howell doesn’t have the physical upside that some of the other top quarterbacks in the 2022 class have. Howell’s arm is far from bad – it’s actually pretty good in the grand scheme of things – but he doesn’t have that ability to consistently create plays out of structure and make throws off-platform. He doesn’t seem to offer much athletic upside, which limits his dual-threat ability and his escapability in and out of the pocket. When looking at the top quarterbacks taken in recent drafts, very few of them don’t stand out physically. He’s pretty accurate in the grand scheme of things, but Howell can be inconsistent stretching the field sometimes. Some of his deep passes can hit targets over the wrong shoulder, and he won’t offer limitless range as a passer in the pros.
Carson Strong | Nevada
(AP Photo/John Locher)
Though he didn’t declare for the 2021 draft, few quarterbacks made as impressive of a leap from 2019 to 2020 as Strong did for Nevada. Strong’s production was much better in 2020: his passing yard totals, completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio and passer rating all improved significantly last season. He displayed fantastic flashes of ball placement, hitting his targets in stride vertically down the field many times over the course of the year. He is a reliable passer in the red zone who can place the 50-50 ball accurately and hit big-bodied targets in tight windows. A big part of what makes him so intriguing, though, is his arm strength. His passes are consistently delivered with plenty of heat behind them, and the sheer force the ball is thrown with allows him to thread the needle pretty consistently. His sheer arm talent – along with his 6-foot-4 frame – gives him plenty of potential at the NFL level. Strong projects as one of the bigger boom-or-bust prospects in the 2022 draft. Though he delivers accurate passes from time to time, his accuracy is pretty inconsistent. His weight distribution in his follow-through can be out of whack at times, relying solely on his arm to generate force and affecting his overall touch. Strong’s internal clock could also use some improvement. He has a tendency to freeze in the pocket and be delayed in picking up blitz concepts, and he also has a tendency to stare down his first read too often. Plus, he doesn’t offer nearly the athletic ability that players like Willis or Rattler have in this class.
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