The blessing of the NFL draft — or the curse depending on your point of view — is that it taps into the inner scout and/or general manager in all of us. Any man or woman who has simulated through a season of Madden to get to the off-season and draft, or who has even just picked teams for a game of flag football on the weekend, has our own thoughts and notions for scouting and roster construction.
Beyond that, it also taps into another essential part of being a fan.
Second guessing decisions.
Spend an afternoon going down a YouTube rabbit hole of reaction videos to draft picks, particularly when the New York Jets are on the clock and the draft was in New York City, and you can see why the draft is one of the year’s biggest events on the football calendar.
That is why we all love putting together mock drafts.
In that vein, here is a look at how the first round might unfold if, for some bizarre and insane reason, teams let me in on the decisions. Here is the “what I would do” version of a mock draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Certainly the odds point to a pass rusher coming off the board first overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But looking back at how Doug Pederson won Super Bowl LII with the Philadelphia Eagles, having a stable, solid offensive line in front of the quarterback was a big part of their run to the Lombardi Trophy. While Jacksonville added Brandon Scherff via free agency and used the franchise tag on Cam Robinson, they have taken steps towards getting their best five in front of Trevor Lawrence.
Adding Evan Neal, an athletic tackle who has played at left guard, left tackle and right tackle in the SEC, gets the Jaguars that much closer to putting their best five in front of Lawrence, and gets Pederson that much closer to replicating what he had in Philadelphia.
Detroit Lions: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
You would think that if the board fell this way, the Detroit Lions are running to the podium to add Aidan Hutchinson to their defensive front. He played at Michigan, has emerged as the consensus EDGE1 in this draft class, and was a Heisman Finalist after an impressive final season for the Wolverines.
However, this is a “what I would do” mock draft, and I keep coming back to Kayvon Thibodeaux and what he put on tape the past few seasons. As he himself has said, getting into counter moves quicker as a pass rusher would unlock more potential for him off the edge, but he is the pass rusher I’m adding if I have the chance.
Houston Texans: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Kyle Hamilton is undergoing a pre-draft slide, of that there is no doubt.
Perhaps it was inevitable. After all, we are taking about a safety, a position not often regarded as one teams reach for at the top of the draft. If a team adds Hamilton within the top ten, he becomes one of the higher-paid players in the league at his position. According to OverTheCap.com, the player drafted in the third slot is estimated to have a total value of over $40 million dollars for their four-year contract. That total value would rank Hamilton’s contract, if he indeed comes off the board third-overall to the Houston Texans, in the top ten among safeties.
Still, if I am Nick Caserio, I am making that move.
After all, remember two things: First, we are living in the age of two-high defenses, which has led many to argue that versatility at the safety position is of premium importance. Second, this is a Lovie Smith team we are talking about, and as the coach was quick to remind everyone at the Combine, he is a firm believer in that defensive structure. Hamilton to Houston makes a ton of sense to me.
New York Jets: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
In many a mock draft, I have made the case that Sauce Gardner should be the pick for the New York Jets. The parallels to the defense Robert Saleh coached in San Francisco, and what he is trying to build in New York with the Jets, brings me to such a conclusion.
However, the Jets also need to add up front, and at wide receiver. While cornerback and pass rusher are both deep positions in this draft, the chance to add the player many view as EDGE1 in this class is tough to pass up.
New York Giants: Ikem Ekownu, OT, N.C. State
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The New York Giants are another team that has to shore up their offensive line, and that leads them to Ikem Ekownu, the tackle from N.C. State who has also seen some time at guard. Similar to the Jaguars, the Giants have to put their best five in front of Daniel Jones, and adding Ekownu gets them a step closer.
However, regarding Mr. Jones…
This might be a spot to watch for a trade on draft night, and if I really am in the room with Joe Schoen, I am helping work the phones for a slide back. The Giants have another pick at seven overall, and if the Carolina Panthers have yet to address quarterback via a trade, they could be eyeing a passer with that selection. So QB-needy teams might be looking to get to five. If the Giants could slide back in the first round, add future draft assets should Jones not take the step forward he needs to this year — giving them more resources should they need to address QB next year — that might be a smart move. Finding a trading partner, however, might be tougher. Especially if the Panthers have already added a veteran QB prior to the draft. If they stay and make a pick, Ekownu makes a great deal of sense.
Carolina Panthers: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
(AP Photo/Butch Dill)
The working theory is that the Carolina Panthers ultimately address quarterback by adding another veteran. Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo stated this week that Sam Darnold is the starting quarterback — before trying to walk that statement back a bit — and there have been lots of stories about how the organization is looking to add a veteran passer, whether Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield.
If quarterback is not the position they address, then offensive line will be. Charles Cross looks every bit the part of a starting left tackle on Sundays, and whether it is Darnold, Mayfield, Garoppolo or me under center for the Panthers next year, they need help up front.
(If it is me, I’m truly sorry Panthers fans).
New York Giants: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
(Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports)
Incoming defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is known for bringing pressure after the quarterback and playing man coverage behind those pressure packages.
Sauce Gardner might as well be shopping for real estate in the greater New York City area.
Because between the Jets and the Giants, it is hard not to see Gardner in New York City next season. With the board falling the way it does in this draft, Gardner joins the Giants and gives Martindale a corner with sticky man coverage chops, the ability to play in press, and experience being put on an island while in college.
Atlanta Falcons: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
(Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
This is where things start to get tricky…
The Atlanta Falcons have a number of needs, among them wide receiver, and in previous mocks I have entertained the idea of the Falcons adding a receiver in this spot.
They also need to solidify the quarterback position. Marcus Mariota gives them an option for Week 1, but unless the Falcons are convinced he is the long-term answer at the position — and unless he absolutely crushed workouts this week it is hard to see how they could be — quarterback should also be in play.
Desmond Ridder might be the best fit for them schematically, given how he plays the game, the comparisons to Mariota and Ryan Tannehill, and Arthur Smith’s offense. But for the Falcons to add him, they might have to do it at eight, because odds are he will not be there when they are back on the clock in the second round.
Could they pull the trigger this early? Maybe, and Ridder is rising up boards and is a favorite of the film-watching community.
Instead, the Falcons go in a different direction and add Malik Willis, placing the big bet on upside. Willis is also a fit for what we have seen from Smith’s offense, and with Mariota in place there can be some organization patience with him. Get him on the field later in the season, cater to his arm talent and athleticism, and hope you can get him close to his potential as a quarterback.
Seattle Seahawks: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
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The Seattle Seahawks have a number of positions they could address with this selection. Offensive tackle is certainly chief among them, and according to nflmockdraftdatabase.com, Charles Cross is the consensus pick right now for Seattle in this spot.
But with the top three tackles off the board, the Seahawks go in a different direction. Of course, with John Schneider and Pete Carroll still in the room, one might anticipate that Seattle throws everyone a curveball with this selection. However, with Derek Stingley Jr. staring them in the face, adding him to the secondary would be the move I’d be advocating for in the draft room.
Quarterback is another need, but with Willis off the board, Seattle goes in a different direction.
New York Jets: Drake London, WR, USC
(Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)
Having addressed pass rush with their first of two picks in the top ten the New York Jets can go in a different direction with this selection.
The wide receiver group — similar to other positions — has taken on a bit of a “pick your flavor” element as the draft approaches. From where I sit, Drake London is at the top of the board but that is not a lock, consensus view. But for the Jets, he might be an ideal fit.
They have options at the slot and at the Z position, but adding a prototypical X who could also see time as a big slot seems like a great intersection of value and need.
Washington Commanders: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Even with the trade for Carson Wentz, there are sections of the Washington fan base hoping the Commanders address quarterback early in the 2022 NFL draft. Sitting at 11 overall, and with Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder staring them in the face, one might think the organization gives into those desires.
Still, having made the trade for Wentz — and taking on his contract in the process — adding another quarterback in this spot and committing those kinds of resources to the position when only one can see the field, seems like a poor allocation of capital. If Washington wanted to add a bridge capital and still draft a rookie early, they had other options. Sitting here right now, it looks like Wentz is their Plan A in both the short-term, and long-term.
So now they need to put some help around him. Adding a silky-smooth receiver like Chris Olave is a great step in that direction. Olave gives Washington the complete route tree on day one, and his ability to separate both underneath and downfield is a big boost to the Washington passing game.
Minnesota Vikings: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
Earlier this draft cycle, one of the easiest picks to make was slotting Derek Stingley Jr. into the Minnesota Vikings with the 12th-overall selection. However, that has been tougher recently, with the performance that Stingley put on at the LSU Pro Day coupled with other movement — and perhaps some revisiting his 2019 tape.
With a need at cornerback, the Vikings switch gears at the position. Andrew Booth Jr. is another talented member of this cornerback group, with the footwork and athleticism to play man coverage but the experience in a zone or off-man scheme. That versatility makes him an ideal candidate for Minnesota and what they are going to build on the defensive side of the football under Ed Donatell.
Houston Texans: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
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The emergence of Davis Mills as a viable starting quarterback gives Nick Caserio and the Houston Texans a lot of options in this draft. Having addressed the defense with the third-overall selection, adding safety Kyle Hamilton, the Texans can now turn to the offensive side of the football. Adding to the offensive line is an option, but Houston is also thin at wide receiver. If the season began today, their starting three receivers in an 11-personnel package would be Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and Chris Moore.
So yeah, a receiver in this spot makes sense.
Jameson Williams exploded last season for Alabama, and his play-making skills would be a boost to any NFL offense. His rehabilitation from a knee injury is reportedly ahead of schedule, putting him on pace to play early next season. Adding his explosiveness to the Houston offense would be a big boost to not just that unit, but Mills and his own development.
Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
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Jordan Davis to the Baltimore Ravens seems like an ideal pairing. Davis has the ability to handle the two-gap responsibilities he would see in some of Baltimore’s odd front packages, and as outlined earlier this draft cycle, there is perhaps some untapped potential as a pass rusher.
There are other positions that the Ravens could address, such as pass rusher or offensive tackle, but Davis is one of the more complete football players in the draft and if I were in the room, I’m pleading with the rest of the organization to make him the selection.
Philadelphia Eagles: Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
I can hear many of you now.
“There is no way that Travon Walker is available this late.”
That is probably a correct take, and something that will be addressed in the final, more predictive mock draft later this week. But in the universe where every NFL team — for some reason — lets me in the room where it happens, Walker is available when the Philadelphia Eagles are first on the clock.
And the Eagles waste no time making him the selection.
One of the aspects of the Eagles defense that frustrated fans last season was a lack of blitzing, and therefore a lack of pressure on the opposing passer. Philadelphia blitzed on just 16.4% of their defensive snaps a season ago, second-lowest in the league. Their corresponding pressure rate of 24.0% was in the bottom half of the NFL. If you are not going to blitz, you need players that can win one-on-ones, and Walker’s athleticism makes him a candidate to do just that. Yes, Philadelphia added Hasson Reddick in free agency, and they still have Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett in the fold, but Walker is hard to pass up here.
New Orleans Saints: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
When the New Orleans Saints executed the trade with the Philadelphia Eagles to add another pick in the first round many, including yours truly, instantly thought the Saints were eying a trade up in the first round to grab a quarterback.
But with both Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton in the fold for 2022, there is no need to force a move at the quarterback position, and the Saints do have other needs to address. One such need is the wide receiver position, and finding a running mate for Michael Thomas. Garrett Wilson’s explosive play-making skills will be a huge asset for the offense next season, regardless of who is taking the snaps.
Los Angeles Chargers: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)
Wait, so you are telling me that I can pair a confident, downfield weapon in Treylon Burks with one of the league’s more dynamic downfield passers in Justin Herbert?
Sign me up.
Yes, the Los Angeles Chargers have needs at other positions, and offensive line — specifically right tackle — is a position that many look to address for the Chargers in mock drafts. Trevor Penning is a popular pick for them, but as someone who is not as high on Penning as the consensus, I love the idea of giving Burks a select package of routes, mostly vertical routes and deep crossers, and letting him attack downfield with Herbert.
Philadelphia Eagles: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
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Devin Lloyd is a popular pick for the Philadelphia Eagles, given their needs on the defensive side of the football, particularly at the second level. But having added Hasson Reddick in free agency, and now Travon Walker in the draft, the overlapping skill sets among those two players and potentially Lloyd force Philadelphia to go in a different direction.
That direction? Cornerback.
While Darius Slay is a plus starter on one side, the Eagles need to find another option. That leads them to Trent McDuffie, one of my favorite players to study in this class. He is a scheme-diverse cornerback, who can handle the zone and off-man coverages that the Eagles implemented last season but can also handle man coverage on the boundary. Philadelphia needed to improve their defense this off-season, and these picks plus the addition of Reddick in free agency have accomplished that goal.
New Orleans Saints: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
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Sure, this one might need some explaining.
Once you get past the consensus top-three tackles of Evan Neal, Charles Cross and Ikem Ekownu, Trevor Penning is the name that usually appears next on the list. But if it were me in the room, I am making a case for Bernhard Raimann.
He might be a bit of a project, having changed positions while in college. He might have shorter arms than the league average at the position. But he is an absolute elite athlete for a tackle in the NFL, having posted impressive numbers at the Combine that match what he put on film:
With a need at left tackle in New Orleans, Raimann is a plug-and-play option while still having room to grow and develop. He was our OT4 here at Touchdown Wire, and makes a great deal of sense for the Saints.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the handful of teams expected to address quarterback in the first round of this draft. With Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett falling to them, they can do just that. While he might not have the upside of Malik Willis, Pickett is an NFL-ready quarterback who has shown great growth and development during his time in college.
Yes, there are concerns about handsize that make him an outliner from that perspective, and yes he will need to shore up his responses to unexpected pressure in the pocket, but Pickett attacks all areas of the field well, is ready to handle NFL progressions and concepts, and has the athletic ability to survive in the modern NFL.
New England Patriots: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
(Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports)
This just screams Bill Belichick to me.
Many in the Greater Boston area are hoping that the New England Patriots address the wide receiver room with this selection, but having added DeVante Parker via trade, the Patriots do not need to force a selection at WR with this pick.
That frees up other positions for them, most notably cornerback and linebacker.
Kaiir Elam and Roger McCreary are options at this point, but with Devin Lloyd staring Belichick in the face, something tells me Lloyd is on his way to Foxborough. His ability to impact the passing game, work downhill against the run and even serve as an option off the edge in sub packages makes him perhaps a quintessential Belichick addition.
Green Bay Packers: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
(AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)
Jermaine Johnson has put together a tremendous pre-draft process, one that began in Mobile during the Senior Bowl and has him firmly inside the first round of mock drafts. He is a smart, experienced defender who can serve in a few different roles for the Green Bay Packers.
Johnson can be a outside linebacker in some base schemes, but also play with his hand in the dirt as a defensive end when the Packers roll out sub packages or four-man fronts. He has an impressive tool kit as a pass rusher, and is a solid run defender on the edge. While the Packers still have a need at wide receiver, the value is hard to pass up here.
Arizona Cardinals: George Karlfatis, EDGE, Purdue
Scanning through mock drafts, it would appear that the Arizona Cardinals could go in any number of directions in the first round. Cornerback, wide receiver and offensive line are common selections for them with this pick.
But the departure of Chandler Jones to Las Vegas, and the injury history of J.J. Watt, brings defensive line into focus.
George Karlaftis has slid a bit, given the rise of Travon Walker and Jermaine Johnson in recent weeks, but he is an impressive prospect in his own right off the edge. He has the power to win against tackles in the NFL, but also brings the ability to corner and attack off the edge with athleticism. He is tireless up front, and has a vast array of pass-rushing moves coupled with the ability to counter tackles as needed. When you add that to the versatility he showed on film, this seems like an ideal fit for the Cardinals.
Dallas Cowboys: Zion Johnson, IOL, Boston College
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Shoring up the offensive line seems to be atop the to-do list down in Dallas. During the NFL’s winter meetings a few weeks ago, owner and general manager Jerry Jones made it clear the positions he hoped to address via the draft, including offensive line. “Obviously, I’d like to have a young offensive lineman at the positions that you could immediately come in and play.” After all, the organization saw Connor Williams leave in free agency, and released La’El Collins. Finding a way to put the best five options in front of Dak Prescott is a need.
Zion Johnson might be the perfect answer. He spent time at both tackle and guard during his days at Boston College, and even showed the ability to play center during the Senior Bowl. That versatility, coupled with what he put on film the past few seasons, makes him a great option for the Cowboys at this point of the first round.
Buffalo Bills: Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
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Roger McCreary is another member of this draft class that I absolutely loved watching, and that might leave me with a higher grade on him than consensus. But I love the way he plays cornerback, and his game against Alabama this past season was a fun watch, even with the way it ended for him. You do not step into the SEC as a young cornerback and play the way he did without bringing some upper-level traits to the table, and when you watch his first career interception — while covering Ja’Marr Chase on a double-move route — you can see NFL traits.
Yes, the arms are undersized and make him an outlier. But I’m willing to place a bet on him, particularly at this point in the first round. Sign me up.
Tennessee Titans: Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M
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There is a part of my mind that looks at Desmond Ridder as an option here. Ryan Tannehill is nearing the end of his current deal, and Ridder might be a perfect fit in the Tennessee offense. But the Titans have other needs, including wide receiver and offensive line. Lacking a pick in the second round, drafting a player that likely does not see the field until 2023 at the earliest seems like a luxury move.
Instead, they add on the interior, bringing in Kenyon Green from Texas A&M. Earlier in the draft cycle Green seemed like a lock for the first round, and potentially early at that, but he has slid down boards a bit. Green played everywhere for the Aggies during his time on campus, including a snap at center during the 2020 season, and that versatility is a huge boost for the Titans as they look to shore up the offensive line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia
Depth in the secondary was a huge issue for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season, both at cornerback and at safety. That has led some to add Daxton Hill in this spot, given the versatility he showed during his time at Michigan. But having already added Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal already in free agency, the Buccaneers can look to other positions.
With Devonte Wyatt on the board, and Ndamukong Suh still a free agent, adding Wyatt to pair him with Vita Vea looks like a smart move for the Buccaneers. Putting Wyatt’s disruption alongside Vea, or even adding him into the mix should Suh return to Tampa Bay in the next few weeks, gives the Buccaneers and their new defensive-minded head coach a ton of options along the defensive front.
Green Bay Packers: George Pickens, WR, Georgia
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With the trade of Devante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, wide receiver is certainly a need for the Green Bay Packers. Of course, there is no way to replace Adams immediately, as talented as this rookie crop of receivers might be, and the popular options — Jameson Williams, Garrett WIlson and Chris Olave — are all off the board.
That brings us to George Pickens.
While Pickens might slide out of the first round entirely, due in part to missing the bulk of the 2021 season with a knee injury, the flashes he showed in 2021 coupled with what he did in the SEC as a true freshman in 2019 make him a first-round pick in my mind. His body control, catch radius and ability to adjust to throws make him a dangerous weapon in the downfield passing game, and on the back-shoulder balls that Aaron Rodgers loved to throw to Adams. While Pickens cannot replicate everything Adams offered the Packers — few receivers can — he gives them a big part of that out of the box.
Kansas City Chiefs: Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota
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Wide receiver is a position that is often associated with the Kansas City Chiefs at this point of the draft, given the departure of Tyreek Hill to Miami, but thanks to additions in free agency (JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling) the Chiefs do not have to force a selection at the position. Plus, with a pair of picks in the second round, they can still add at the position with players like Skyy Moore, Christian Watson, John Metchie III or Khalil Shakir later in the draft.
Instead, the Chiefs look to add pieces on the defensive side of the football.
Remember all the discussion last year about their defensive woes, and how those contributed to mistakes on the offensive side of the football? Yeah, time to shore up the defense in what will be a tough AFC West. They begin by addressing pass rush, adding Boye Mafe off the edge from Minnesota. Mafe might be more of a developmental player at this point, but the athleticism and potential is there.
Kansas City Chiefs: Daxton Hill, CB/S, Michigan
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With their next pick, the Kansas City Chiefs turn to the secondary. Daxton Hill’s versatility gives defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a ton of options. Hill can serve as a single-high safety, as he played in that role for the Michigan Wolverines during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, but this past year he slid into the slot, and thrived in that role.
Hill has impressive closing ability and is not afraid to work downhill and make plays against the run. That versatility makes him a huge addition for the Chiefs as they work to put together a secondary for the upcoming season.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Yes I know, the Cincinnati Bengals have made a ton of additions to the offensive line already, having added Alex Cappa and La’el Collins during this off-season. But the value that Tyler Linderbaum offers, as well as the scheme fit, makes this almost an ideal pairing.
Months ago, it looked like Linderbaum would be coming off the board well inside the top 15 selections, but concerns about size and scheme fit have seen him slide as the draft looms. In Cincinnati, he’ll be put into a system that pairs well with his athleticism and movement skills. Plug him in at center and get out of the way.
Detroit Lions: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
If I am in the room with Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes, and the board falls this way, I am grabbing the phone and placing the call for Desmond Ridder before anyone has the chance to stop me.
I understand the criticism about waiting on a quarterback, believe me. Perhaps if Ridder does slide into the 20s the Lions are placing calls to try and move up to guarantee they can land Ridder. But if the Cincinnati passer is available when they are on the clock at 32, the pick makes so much sense.
Yes, the Lions have needs at safety, glaring needs at that. But with Jaquan Brisker and Lewis Cine still on the board, you are guaranteed an option at the position when you are on the clock again Friday night. Adding Ridder, and that fifth-year option at the quarterback position, looks like a smart move. Plus, Ridder can play early if you need him to.
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