The 2021 MLB Draft is mere days away, kicking off July 11 at 7:00 p.m.
The overall consensus on the draft class is that it is a bit top heavy in college pitching, and the best spot for depth is in high school bats. While there isn’t a consensus No. 1 pick like years past, the top of this draft has talent that I believe will be impactful big leaguers.
Here is SNY’s 2021 MLB Mock Draft 4.0:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates – SS Marcelo Mayer – Eastlake HS (California)
Mock Draft 3.0 Pick – SS Marcelo Mayer – Eastlake HS (California)
Mock Draft 2.0 Pick – SS Marcelo Mayer – Eastlake HS (California)
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick – SS Jordan Lawlar – Jesuit Prep HS (Texas)
There is no “lock” still with the No. 1 pick, but Mayer is the leader in the clubhouse. The Pirates can still consider a couple others like Jordan Lawlar or Henry Davis if they are willing to go enough under slot, but the expectation in the scouting community is Mayer will end up a Pirate come July 11.
2. Texas Rangers – RHP Jack Leiter – Vanderbilt
Mock Draft 3.0 Pick – C Henry Davis – Louisville
Mock Draft 2.0 Pick – RHP Jack Leiter – Vanderbilt
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick. C Henry Davis – Louisville
I do not believe Leiter is in play at No. 1, but I do not see him falling outside of the top four. The Rangers have seemingly shown the most interest in Leiter and Davis, but also keep an eye on high school shortstops Lawlar and Kahlil Watson here.
3. Detroit Tigers – RHP Jackson Jobe – Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma)
Mock Draft 3.0 Pick – SS Brady House – Winder Barrow HS (Georgia)
Mock Draft 2.0 Pick – SS Jordan Lawlar – Jesuit Prep HS (Texas)
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick. SS Marcelo Mayer – Eastlake HS (Texas)
The Tigers held a private workout with high school shortstop Brady House, but also had sent high level executives to multiple Jobe starts this year. I think Leiter would be in play if he didn’t go No. 2, but if it goes this way, I would think Detroit likely goes either House or Jobe.
4. Boston Red Sox – C Henry Davis – Louisville
Mock 3.0 Pick – RHP Jack Leiter – Vanderbilt
Mock 2.0 Pick – C Henry Davis – Louisville
Mock 1.0 Pick – RHP Jack Leiter – Vanderbilt
I believe this is the floor for Leiter. With him gone, there is a lot of smoke with the Red Sox and Davis. I also think this is where the consideration for Kumar Rocker could start if his signing bonus demands worked out under slot here.
5. Baltimore Orioles – SS Kahlil Watson – Wake Forest HS (North Carolina)
Mock 3.0 Pick – OF Colton Cowser – Sam Houston State
Mock 2.0 Pick – RHP Jackson Jobe – Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma)
Mock 1.0 Pick – RHP Jackson Jobe – Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma)
If the Orioles want to go big under slot like they did last year drafting Heston Kjerstad, then I think Colton Cowser might be the prime focus here. Watson’s stock has risen this spring, and I think he belongs in the top five, it’s just a matter of where he fits. If he is willing to take a little bit of a discount to go here, I think it could be the right combination of money saving and talent for Baltimore.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks – SS Jordan Lawlar – Jesuit Prep HS (Texas)
Mock 3.0 Pick – SS Jordan Lawlar – Jesuit Prep HS (Texas)
Mock 2.0 Pick – SS Kahlil Watson – Wake Forest HS (North Carolina)
Mock 1.0 Pick – SS Matt McLain – UCLA
Lawlar has an outside shot to go No. 2 to the Rangers, but if not there, I struggle to see the fit in the top five for a guy who sits atop my personal big board. You will hear this a lot, but being flexible on the signing bonus plays a role in the MLB Draft unlike any other draft. Arizona is an aggressive team, and I think they would pop Lawlar here and take a player with five-tool potential. If it fell like this, I think Rocker would also be in play.
7. Kansas City Royals – RHP Kumar Rocker – Vanderbilt
Mock 3.0 Pick – RHP Kumar Rocker – Vanderbilt
Mock 2.0 Pick – RHP Kumar Rocker – Vanderbilt
Mock 1.0 Pick – RHP Kumar Rocker – Vanderbilt
I know Mets fans dream of Rocker falling to No. 10, and that, while not impossible, still feels unlikely. I have given Rocker to the Royals every step of this mock, and I see no reason to change that. They can bank on Rocker’s upside and could have a future rotation headlined by two top 10 picks in last years’ first-rounder Asa Lacy and Rocker. However, if the Royals opt to go a different direction, then I think there is a very real chance he makes it to number 10 where the Mets pick.
8. Colorado Rockies – SS Brady House – Winder Barrow HS (Georgia)
Mock 3.0 Pick – SS Kahlil Watson – Wake Forest HS (North Carolina)
Mock 2.0 Pick – RHP Sam Bachman – Miami of Ohio
Mock 1.0 Pick – SS Brady House – Winder Barrow HS (Georgia)
The Rockies are in a good spot where at least one of the top eight players in the class will be available. In my opinion, there is a bit of a tier drop after the top eight in this class. If a team or two ahead of them cut under slot deals, they may have their choice of a couple in that tier, but in this case, House is the last one standing and they don’t pass on the top prep power bat in the class.
9. Los Angeles Angels – RHP Ty Madden – Texas
Mock 3.0 Pick – RHP Jackson Jobe – Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma)
Mock 2.0 Pick – SS Matt McLain – UCLA
Mock 1.0 Pick – OF Sal Frelick – Boston College
I had Madden to the Mets in mock 3.0, and I still think that is possible. However, it is not a particularly deep class of college pitching, so I can see college pitching being pushed up the board when the draft actually comes around. That could mean Madden goes before the 10th pick, and if he doesn’t, he likely will not last much longer.
10. New York Mets – RHP Sam Bachman – Miami of Ohio
Mock Draft 3.0 Pick – RHP Ty Madden – Texas
Mock Draft 2.0 Pick – OF Colton Cowser – Sam Houston State
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick – RHP Sam Bachman – Miami of Ohio
What the Mets can do at No. 10 is truly wide open. Barring someone falling into their laps like Rocker or Jobe, they are considering college hitters, college pitchers and maybe a certain high school bat like Colson Montgomery, who could be an under slot option at this pick.
In this mock, we go back to where we started with the big arm of Bachman. He possesses arguably the best two-pitch mix in the entire draft with a fastball that will touch 100 mph and a wipeout slider that he throws in the upper 80s, which some scouts think is a 70-grade offering. He also has a changeup that he didn’t need to use much, but in workouts using Rapsodo data it shows really good analytical traits.
There is some reliever risk here, and he had a little shoulder soreness this year but came back and pitched to the same stuff he had pre-soreness. Bachman is an arm that analytically driven teams are showing more interest in, and with the Mets introducing a specific analytics team into their amateur scouting department, as we were told by Tommy Tanous in the latest episode of Mets Prospective, I can see them going this route.