12-0? Why Phil Steele Thinks Notre Dame Football Can Go Undefeated Again

Could Notre Dame go 12-0 again?

The Fighting Irish have finished the regular season with a dozen wins and no losses twice (2012 and ‘18) during the Brian Kelly era. College football guru Phil Steele wrote in his annual season preview magazine that he thinks Notre Dame can do it again in 2021.

“While most of my power ratings forecast a loss or two, my main set of ratings has them going 12-0 this year,” Steele wrote in his magazine.

Steele added, “They face my No. 23 rated schedule with all 12 teams capable of getting to a bowl but they are also a talented team that can win each of those games.”

Notre Dame Fighting Irish football head coach Brian Kelly — Brian Kelly has led Notre Dame to three undefeated regular seasons in his tenure, including 10-0 last year. He’s aiming for his third 12-0 campaign. (Photo by Bill Panzica)

Here’s what else Steele had to say about Notre Dame this season.

National Position Rankings

Quarterbacks: No. 38

Running backs: No. 7

Offensive line: No. 54

Wide receivers: No. 33

Defensive line: No. 9

Linebackers: No. 18

Defensive backs: No. 12

Special teams: No. 13

Notre Dame Fighting Irish football kicker Jonathan Doerer — Notre Dame kicker Jonathan Doerer has not missed an extra point in his career. (ACC Media)

Steele clearly is hesitant to call Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan, sophomore Drew Pyne and true freshman Tyler Buchner a potent passing contingent. He’s also worried about the Irish having to replace four starters from last season’s offensive line and a wide receivers room that has continually lagged behind those of other perennial College Football Playoff contenders.

Still, every other unit ranking inside the top 20 is promising for Kelly and company. Junior running back Kyren Williams and sophomore Chris Tyree make up a flashy 1-2 punch in the ground game, and the defense is poised to be solid all around. Notre Dame has two experienced special teamers in kicker Jonathan Doerer and punter Jay Bramblett.

NCAA Experience Chart

Steele has an advanced system to compute metrics that determine which teams in the country have the most returning production and experience. The math is rigorous and complex, but the results are worth diving into.

Steele rates every team in the country on a scale of zero to 100 based on his algorithms. A score of 100, Steele writes, represents a team with the NCAA limit 25 scholarship seniors, every yard, tackle, tackle for loss and interception returning and 120+ offensive line starts. A score of zero represents a team with no experience and no seniors in the two-deep.

Minnesota ranks No. 1 with a score of 99.5. Northwestern ranks last in the Football Bowl Subdivision at No. 130. Notre Dame? Not too far ahead of the Wildcats at No. 128.

While that’s concerning, Steele still has high hopes for the Irish. He believes Notre Dame is replacing the starters and seniors lost from last year’s roster with talented players capable of stepping up and producing. He ranks Notre Dame No. 10 in his power poll and No. 7 in his preseason top 40, which is where he thinks each team will finish in the final rankings.

Five of Notre Dame’s opponents — North Carolina (No. 7), Cincinnati (No. 10), Wisconsin (No. 11), USC (No. 13) and Stanford at (No. 40) — appear in Steele’s top 40.

Team Statistics Projections

Rush yards per game: 177.5

Pass yards per game: 236.8

Points per game: 31.6

Rush yards against per game: 125.9

Pass yards against per game: 201.0

Points against per game: 21.1

Notre Dame’s yards per game differential of 87.4 ranks No. 29 nationally. The Irish’s points per game differential of 10.5 ranks No. 24. In 2020, Notre Dame had a yards per game differential of 104.4 and a points per game differential of 13.7.

Obviously, Notre Dame is expected to take a bit of a step back in 2021. The Irish only return nine starters — three on offense and six on defense. They’re replacing the winningest quarterback in program history in Ian Book. They’re replacing the Butkus Award winner in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. They’re overhauling almost the entirety of the offensive line.

It’s not going to be easy to accomplish what Steele thinks Notre Dame can — another undefeated regular season. But if the Irish lean on Williams offensively with contributions from wide receivers who need to step up and junior Kyle Hamilton is as advertised and sets the tone for a talented defense, then it’s possible.

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