The Year 2021 is mercifully in the rearview mirror for the Giants, and the 2021 season will soon join it in the trash. And with a new year and season brings new hope, new promise, new opportunities, new … well, look at it this way: How much worse could 2022 get?
I know. Don’t answer that. Just read my 10 Giants predictions for the new year:
1. Dave Gettleman will ‘retire’ on Monday
Yes, I’m starting with an easy one. And don’t get caught up in the semantics of the announcement. He’s 70, he’s spent 19 years with the organization, so if it’s framed as a “retirement” it’s just a courtesy. Teams rarely say “fired” anyway. It’s always “parted ways,” often “mutually.” No one ever says, “We booted him out the door.”
2. Joe Judge will be back
It doesn’t matter if they don’t make it official on Monday, and it won’t matter who the new GM is. John Mara believes in him and that’s all that’s going to matter. Even if he says that he’ll give a new GM a chance to weigh in on the head coach, don’t expect a change because it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Assuming the Giants do a thorough GM search, by the time they have a new one in place and that new GM weighs in on the coach, the hiring cycle will be largely over and the best candidates would be gone. If you’re even pondering a coaching change, why would you give everyone else a two to three week head start in the search for the best candidates? Also, how many people who want the Giants GM job will go into their interview and tell Mara they want to fire the coach he supports?
3. Mara will hire a GM from the outside and not someone with ties to Judge, either
Shocker, right? He undoubtedly planned to have assistant GM Kevin Abrams succeed Gettleman, but he’s smart enough to know he can’t possibly sell that to his angry fanbase now. It’s too bad in some ways, because Abrams is more qualified than people think and those who know him are convinced he wouldn’t be just an extension of Gettleman. But Mara can read the room and I believe he knows it’s time to go outside “the family.” He also knows it makes no sense if the new GM has Judge’s fingerprints all over him when Judge is likely facing a win-or-else year in 2022. It’s just a guess, but keep an eye on former Kansas City Chiefs/Cleveland Browns GM John Dorsey and Buffalo Bills assistant GM Joe Schoen.
4. The Giants will not pick up Daniel Jones‘ fifth-year option for 2023, but he will be their QB in 2022
Picking up his $21 million, fifth-year option – which they’d have to do by May – makes no sense. He hasn’t earned that kind of commitment. They can always give him a new deal or the franchise tag next year if he plays well in 2022. And he will get that chance, even though the report that the Giants have already decided Jones will be their starter in 2022 isn’t exactly true. They believe in him, but mostly because they know they don’t have any better options.
Nobody loves the QBs in the draft, the Giants don’t have money for the mediocre QBs in free agency, and while they might look into Russell Wilson if the Seattle Seahawks are crazy enough to auction him off, they know they’d have to basically mortgage their future and bring him into a bad situation. Now, if the new GM has other ideas or can figure out how to get Wilson and not destroy the team and its future, then the Giants will have no problem moving on from Jones. But it’s just not realistic.
5. Saquon Barkley won’t get his contract extension
He’s already gotten his fifth-year option for 2022, so the Giants will have paid him $38.6 million over five years for … what, exactly? A great rookie season and a lot of injuries? Barkley, at this point, is in “prove it” territory on his career. He’s a lot of potential, with not nearly enough production, and a ton of questions about injuries. He once looked destined for a long-term deal worth $12-15 million per season. Obviously, the Giants aren’t that crazy. But with their cap issues and the rebuilding they need to do up front, it’s much smarter to let him play out the final year of his contract and worry about the future in 2023. And if that means he ends up testing free agency? OK.
7. Judge will go outside for a new offensive coordinator
Freddie Kitchens has a shot to stay and get the title officially, and Judge does seem to like to hire friends and people he’s coached with in the past. But I think there’s going to be some organizational pressure to punt on the entire offensive staff. I mean, it’s been bad. There’s no defense for the job any of them have done on that side of the ball. Keep an eye on Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, whom he tried to get two years ago. But that’s only if the Bills are willing to let him go.
8. The Giants will use their two first-round picks in the 2022 draft on a pass rusher and an offensive lineman
They’d be borderline insane to do anything else, right? It’s the two biggest things Gettleman failed to do in his four years – build a pass rush and the offensive line. Lucky for the new GM, the draft is loaded at the top at both positions and the Giants are sitting on two likely Top 10 picks. If they don’t come out of that with an edge rusher to play opposite promising young linebacker Azeez Ojulari and a new right tackle, they’re simply doing the draft wrong.
9. Their one moderate ‘splash’ in free agency will be for a guard
It’s going to take some sorcery for the next GM to find the salary cap space for even a “moderate” move, since the Giants are projected by OverTheCap.com to have about $2 million in salary cap space this offseason, with maybe the potential to grow that to $20 million. Maybe. With so many needs, that won’t give them room to spend much on anyone. But they need a guard because they can’t bring Will Hernandez back. Their O-line next season likely will be Andrew Thomas at left tackle, Shane Lemieux at left guard and Nick Gates at center (assuming they’re healthy) and a right tackle from the draft. That leaves room at right guard for … someone? None of the internal candidates are exciting.
10. The Giants will be a better team, but it won’t nearly be good enough
They are going to finish this season 4-13, having played six games without their starting QB, most of the season without three-fifths of their starting offensive line, with a running back who is a shell of himself and with injuries decimating their receiving corps. Better health alone should be good enough for three more wins for this group. But with no salary cap space to improve the team in the offseason, it’s hard to see how this group can be much better than that – especially since they’ll likely lose tight end Evan Engram, safety Jabrill Peppers and more in free agency. So, 7-10 seems reasonable. Maybe 8-9 if you’re optimistic (though why would anyone be?).
And that will put the new GM in a very tough spot: He’ll see improvement, but he’ll have to make a call on a head coach with an awful, three-season record. I’d say a .500 record in 2022 would be enough to bring Judge back again, but I’m not ready to make any predictions for 2023 just yet.