What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Week 1 weekend of the college football season?
Week 1 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: College
– Best Picks Against the Spread: Friday
– CFN Week 1 Experts Picks: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 8-2-1
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To be totally honest, I hope a lot of these picks are wrong.
It would be a tremendous thing for college football and the 2021 season if most of the underdogs pull off upsets – several of these lines are low, if not close to even – but I can’t make them happen.
I know it’s boring, unimaginative, and un-American to pick all favorites in all ten of the games here, but I can only see the future, I can’t do anything to change it.
Ten picks, ten favorites. Begging for your forgiveness as we start with …
Click on each game for preview
10. Alabama vs. Miami
LINE Alabama -19.5
ATS PICK Alabama
Hi, I’m Pete, and I picked Ohio State to beat Alabama in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Everyone: “Hi, Pete.”
I spent over a decade yelling at everyone to always take Bama no matter what – that includes against the spread – and I choked before the biggest game of the 2020 season.
Maybe I’m just trying to make up for it, or maybe it’s because this program kicks everyone in the teeth in season openers, or maybe it’s because the Bama linebacking corps is one of the best that college football has seen in a long, long time, and it’s going to shut down D’Eriq King whenever he tries to do anything but become a pocket passer.
Liked it at 17.5, was fine at 18, and not drifting now that it’s 19.5.
9. Texas Tech vs. Houston
LINE Texas Tech -1
ATS PICK Texas Tech
As you’ll see through some of the other picks, my insufferable belief system that teams and programs with more talent and resources tend to win more often than not will come through with the subtlety of a steamroller. But this case is something slightly different.
While some of the upcoming picks are mostly on simply playing into the Power Five snob brand, I actually do believe that Texas Tech is on the verge of a good season.
I’ve been hyping up the Red Raiders all offseason and I can’t bail now – and I’m only giving up one point after the line started out at -6.5.
Houston is good, it’ll be fired up, and this is the year when things are likely to finally turn for head coach Dana Holgorsen. But Texas Tech is LOADED with experience and super-seniors, and it has a future NFL starting quarterback in Oregon transfer Tyler Shough to run the show.
It’ll be a great game, but all Texas Tech has to do is win.
– Week 1 Schedule, Predictions For Every Game
8. Notre Dame at Florida State
LINE Notre Dame -7
ATS PICK Notre Dame
I’m a horrible, horrible person.
I don’t like dogs, I find the Harry Potter movie series to be unwatchable crap, and I despise when the media creates a narrative around real world human interest things as a reason a team might be better in a sporting event.
Bobby Bowden was one of my favorite college football head coaches ever. The McKenzie Milton story – the former UCF QB coming back from a horribly broken leg to play for FSU – is as wonderful as it gets. There won’t be a dry eye in Doak Campbell Stadium on Sunday night as the program honors Bowden and everyone watches Milton run onto the field …
And then Notre Dame wins by double-digits because it’s going to be better at playing college football.
And if Florida State pulls it off, it’ll be because it did a stronger job of blocking and tackling over the four hours.
7. Indiana at Iowa
LINE Iowa -4
ATS PICK Iowa
If you care about these things, I initially put this game here when it was at Iowa -3.5 and it went up to 4. However, it started out at 5.5, and there’s a reason.
Indiana is good. 2020 wasn’t a fluke, the team is as well-coached as any in college football, and it has the guys in place to get this road win as long as the run defense can hold up. But it’s Iowa, it’s at home, and you know exactly what you’re getting.
The running game will be good, the defensive front will be great, and if QB Spencer Petras can hit a downfield throw or three, it should be able to pull this off by more than four. I know I’m getting weird over a half a point, but this is probably going to be played in the 20s – I wanted it at 3.5.
But as we were all told in third grade before a multiple choice test, when in doubt, stick with your first answer.
– Week 1 College Football Expert Picks
6. UTSA at Illinois
LINE Illinois -5
ATS PICK Illinois
I’m a noted Power Five snob and will always instantly assume the bigger, stronger, richer, schools with the advantages will take out the smaller programs that don’t have all of the same luxuries. But UTSA is a good team with real, live players who can hang with a 1-0 Big Ten team.
It would hardly be a total shock if the Roadrunners pull this off – Sincere McCormick might be the best running back the Illini face all year – but the line is only five and I’m all in on the super-senior loaded team with a win under its belt to keep the momentum going at home.
You’ll have to sweat a bit, but the Illinois lines will come through as the game goes on.
Speaking of Power Five arrogance …
NEXT: No. 5 Pick Against The Spread: Syracuse at Ohio
5. Syracuse at Ohio
LINE Syracuse -1
ATS PICK Syracuse
Just go with the percentages.
Over the last five years, the Power Five programs – ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC – have beaten the Group of Five programs – AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt – around 75% of the time straight up.
Against the spread is a different story, but it usually takes some big upset, or some Kansas losses, or some monster Gof5 team to pull off a win over the bigger, richer, deeper football programs.
All you’re asking is for the Power Five program to beat the Group of Five program. That’s it. You don’t need anything funkier than that.
As bad as Syracuse has been lately under Dino Babers, and as ugly as the loss was to Liberty last year, the program beat a solid Western Michigan team 52-33 in 2019 and shut out Liberty to start the season. The program suffered an embarrassing home loss to Middle Tennessee in 2017, lost to a strong USF in 2015 and 2016, and …
That’s about it for a long stretch, because Power Five programs just don’t lose to teams outside of the Power Five all that often.
Ohio’s last win over a Power Five program was at home against 2017 Kansas, and for Babers’ sake, this Syracuse team should be much, much better than that Jayhawks squad.
I’m stalling here and saying a lot of words to do nothing more but feed into my Power Five Is Better arrogance.
Take the Power Five team, and be happy for the Group of Five program if it goes the other way.
NEXT: No. 4 Pick Against The Spread: ULM at Kentucky
4. ULM at Kentucky
LINE Kentucky -31
ATS PICK Kentucky
Time to be greedy-grouchy – the line moving from 29.5 to 31 shouldn’t matter, but of course every little bit helps.
ULM should be a whole lot better after a miserable 2020. It was a rebuilding year for the Warhawks, and it showed as the 0-10 team got rocked in game after game after game.
Things aren’t exactly going well if you’re losing to Texas State by 21 and South Alabama by 24.
New head coach Terry Bowden is a big upgrade, and again, the team should be better and stronger with more experience and more decent parts, but it’s about to run into a Kentucky team that’s going to open it up a bit and win very, very convincingly.
Full SEC snob disclosure, I thought the same thing about Tennessee against Bowling Green on Thursday night. The Vols had the improved offense, Bowling Green is miserable, and covering the 38 wasn’t going to be a big deal, and then everything came to a stop, Tennessee fumbled away a late chance to cover, and that was that.
Covering over 30 points isn’t easy, and this would be a stay-away game if it was up around that 38 the Vol-Falcon game was, but …
Kentucky is doing something wrong if it doesn’t roll at will here.
ULM still has to prove it can score more than 17 points on a regular basis, and it probably won’t get there here.
When the program wasn’t bad – when Caleb Evans was at quarterback – it had Florida State in trouble in 2019 and lost 45-44. It then went on to lose to Iowa State 72-20. This will be somewhere in between those two.
Kentucky is going to want to crank up the offense to see if this thing works, it should get to 40 points without a problem – although, big scoring days against mediocre teams hasn’t been a given so far under Mark Stoops – and this will get ugly in a big hurry.
Speaking of SEC snobbery …
NEXT: No. 3 Pick Against The Spread: LSU at UCLA
3. LSU at UCLA
LINE LSU -3
ATS PICK LSU
We’ve come this far with the thought process, now it’s time to go through with it.
A whole lot of people out there who live and die in the investment world have been pointing to September 4th as Christmas Day – it’s when the LSU-UCLA line pays off.
It started out low at just LSU -4.5, and people pounced. It stayed low, and then it dropped to 3 – 2.5 in some places – after the Bruins were dominant in a 44-10 win over a decent Hawaii team to start the season.
Loved it at 4.5, marrying it at 3.
Of course there’s concern around LSU. It’s the one team couldn’t make Mississippi State look awful last season, it sputtered and struggled offensively until late, and it’s still rebuilding and reloaded after the epic 2019 run.
Meanwhile, UCLA has built itself up under Chip Kelly to have the veterans, the talent, and the attitude to win a game like this. This is it. This is the moment the program has been working towards to announce its emergence on the national scene.
But LSU Is better.
It’s more talented, it’s got the NFL guys, it has the depth rising up, and it has the SEC ability not be fazed by a strange setting and a big stadium. The Rose Bowl might be the greatest setting on the planet for a sporting event, but when it comes to intimidation – to be nice about it – it doesn’t exactly mean more to the UCLA base.
The LSU lines should be able to take over and this isn’t a secondary you want to go against if you’re trying to be better after a rough day like UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had against the Rainbow Warriors.
It would be a good thing for college football if the Pac-12 could get this win. It would be so much fun to have a good UCLA team to generate a buzz around LA. It would be …
Nah. Go with the SEC lines. Go with the SEC talent.
NEXT: No. 2 Pick Against The Spread: New Mexico State at San Diego State
2. New Mexico State at San Diego State
LINE San Diego State -31
ATS PICK San Diego State
It goes against everything we all know and believe to think San Diego State could and should beat a team by more than 31 points.
It destroyed a miserable Utah State team last season – by 31.
It rolled a horrible UNLV that still hasn’t won a game yet under new head coach Marcus Arroyo – by 28.
It was brilliant against Hawaii in a 24-point win last year, and it hammered a punchless New Mexico State team in 2019 by 21.
San Diego State’s style just doesn’t lead to blowouts. The offense grinds it out, the defense is brilliant, repeat – if possible.
The Aztecs have only scores more than 31 points four times in the last three seasons, and a 48-11 New Mexico Bowl win over Central Michigan in 2019 was the only time they beat a team by more since the middle of 2017.
But that’s how bad New Mexico State is.
The Aggies couldn’t get any offense going in a 30-3 home loss to UTEP to start the season. You and ten people in line at Starbucks could hang more than three on UTEP, who came up with one of its most dominant wins in a decade despite not playing all that well.
Break something tasteful if the San Diego State defense allows more than 150 yards of total New Mexico State offense, and just assume that somehow and in some way the offense will fall into a 40-point performance.
Speaking of not scoring …
NEXT: No. 1 Pick Against The Spread: UMass at Pitt
1. UMass at Pitt
LINE Pitt -38
ATS PICK Pitt
UMass isn’t going to score.
Last year was last year, but the offense came up with just 12 points – and one touchdown – in four games, and the Minutemen didn’t make a whole ton of changes to make things a ton better.
It’s actually the opposite – UMass is missing a slew of players through the transfer portal who would’ve been key veterans.
The biggest overall issue is an offensive line that didn’t do anything for the rushing attack and had massive problems in pass protection.
Welcome to the Pitt pass rush.
The Panthers might be missing a ton of key guys from 2020, but the system always brings the heat and the Minutemen won’t be able to handle it.
But you still need to get to 38, and that’s after the line started out at 35. That might not be a sure thing considering the history of the Pitt offense.
Again, the past is the past, but the 2019 offense didn’t score more than 35 points in any game – including in a win over Delaware – and only did that three times in 11 games in 2020.
It’ll be fine.
Pitt has the offense to get there in a hurry, and it should be able blow past 38 points on the board against a UMass D that allowed 41 points or more in three of the last four games last season and in 15 of the last 17 games played. And again, UMass probably won’t score, and if it does, it isn’t getting to double-digits.